Tuesday 07-04-2026 4:34am

The Real Estate Cycle

When will the boom bust?

As if we haven't got enough on our plate what with Iran and the always late Albo, the doomdayists are predicting a real-estate bubble burst by 2028 along with a recession —seem to remember something about real estate agents and used car salesmen but we will ignore that for the moment. Catherine Cashmore, founder of The Land Cycle Investor, has decided to unpack one of the most overlooked frameworks in markets, the 18-year property cycle and what it could mean for Australia as we move into the back end of this decade. At a time when most Australians are still debating whether property prices can keep rising, Cashmore is asking a far more uncomfortable question: What if the peak is already locked in? Cashmore is not a typical market commentator. With a background spanning property analysis, economic research, and financial media, she has spent years studying the structural drivers behind real estate cycles.She is widely recognised for her work on housing markets and has built a reputation for challenging mainstream narratives with data-driven, long-term analysis. In with ASX Trader (finance section of the Daily Tele) conversation, she laid out a thesis that cuts directly against the grain: Australia is not heading for a soft landing but toward the final phase of an 18-year land cycle with a peak expected around 2026-27 and a downturn into 2028-30. What makes this view particularly compelling is that it doesn't stand alone. It aligns with multiple long-term frameworks written about previously including the Benner Cycle () and what I call the release cycle — all pointing toward the same window of risk. The Benner Cycle, first developed in the 1800s, maps long-term boom and bust periods across markets. Its projected peaks have historically aligned with major turning points — including the lead-up to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and now the mid-2020s.


 SPORT:

Knights, Sharks, Bulldogs and Melbourne win but not like Sydney

The Knights awaken and the Shark biting. Last night’s results included the Knights coming home 32-12 against the Canberra Raiders and the Sharks biting the Warriors 36-22. It was a bit clearer in the AFL with the Bulldogs beating Essendon 99-65 and Melbourne sending the Gold Coast team home 109-89. [click to continue reading]

However, over on the courts Sydney has pulled off a Championship Series great escape, coming from behind to claim a 113-101 overtime thriller against Adelaide 36ers in the decider at Qudos Bank Arena.

Led by star guard Kendric Davis and Xavier Cooks, the Kings trailed by seven points at three quarter time but came up with some clutch plays late in the fourth to level scores 95-all and force the game into overtime.

From then, it was all Sydney, as they won their sixth NBL championship.

Sydney Kings captain Xavier Cooks briefly lost his championship ring on the stage post-game and the NBL trophy was broken just seconds after it was lifted but nothing was going to stop the Kings from celebrating banner six.

Code Sports can reveal Cooks put his new ring down to hoist the trophy and it wasn't there when he returned to collect it.

Thankfully, an NBL staffer found the ring and handed it back to the Kings' star.

Cooks is now a three-time NBL champion, which means the world to him as the club’s captain.


 NEWS:

🌋 Iran looking
towards a
week of HELL

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israel yesterday stepped up pressure on Iran to open the strategic Strait of Hormuz waterway or face attacks on its energy infrastructure, while Iranian and U.S. forces searched for a missing U.S. crew member from one of two downed warplanes, reports Reuters today. [click to read more]

Trump, who has sent mixed messages since the conflict began with a joint U.S.-Israeli bombardment of Iran on February 28, told Tehran that his latest deadline for a deal to end the war was fast approaching.

Remember when I gave Iran 10 days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT. Time is running out — 48 hours before all Hell will reign (sic) down on them. Glory be to GOD! he wrote in a post on Truth Social.

Trump’s messaging about the war has veered between hinting at diplomatic progress and making threats to bomb the Islamic Republic back to the Stone Ages.

In an apparent move to heap further pressure on Tehran following Trump’s latest ultimatum, a senior Israeli defence official said Israel was preparing to attack Iranian energy facilities and was awaiting the green light from the U.S.

The timeframe for such attacks would be within the next week, the official said. Trump has previously threatened to hit Iranian power plants if his demands were not met.

Washington faced heightened stakes as the conflict entered its sixth week, with the prospect of a U.S. service member alive and on the run in Iran, slim chances for peace talks and polls showing low public support for the war.

With Iran’s leadership defiant since the start of the conflict, its foreign minister left the door open in principle for peace talks with the U.S. via mediation from Pakistan but gave no sign of Tehran’s willingness to bow to Trump’s demands.

We are deeply grateful to Pakistan for its efforts and have never refused to go to Islamabad. What we care about are the terms of a conclusive and lasting END to the illegal war that is imposed on us, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on X.

The war has killed thousands, sparked an energy crisis and threatened lasting damage to the world economy. Iran has virtually shut the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.

Iran has rained drones and missiles down on Israel and also taken aim at Gulf countries allied to the U.S., which have so far held back from joining the war directly for fear of further escalation.

Iranian state TV said its military had launched drones at U.S. radar installations and a U.S.-linked aluminium plant in the United Arab Emirates and U.S. military headquarters in Kuwait in retaliation for deadly attacks on Iranian industrial centres.

Iran earlier attacked an Israel-affiliated vessel with a drone in the strait, setting the ship on fire, state media said, citing the commander of the Revolutionary Guards' navy.

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🎪 One
nation
bloodbath

Labor and the Coalition are facing a One Nation bloodbath in the battleground state of Queensland, as young Australians, women and voters in the Sunshine State shift away from Anthony Albanese, raising alarm in ALP ranks about losing seats that were won at last year’s election, Geoff Chambers writes on The Australian today's website.

An exclusive Newspoll quarterly analysis prepared for The Australian reveals the extent of Labor’s electoral slide over the past three months, One Nation’s electoral gains across the country and how the Coalition plunged to its worst primary vote in history.

The demographic snapshot from Newspolls conducted between January 12 and March 26, which captured the rise of One Nation, the demise of Sussan Ley and the dramatic fall in satisfaction with the Prime Minister’s performance, shows Pauline Hanson’s party is leading the Coalition in every major state except Victoria and has the highest primary vote of any party in Queensland.

In the wake of the Bondi Beach terror attack in December, a ministerial travel expenses scandal, rising inflation, higher interest rates, fuel shortages triggered by Donald Trump’s war in Iran and the worsening cost-of-living crisis, Mr Albanese and Labor strategists are under pressure to stem the party’s electoral bleeding.

The quarterly analysis, which provides state-by-state averages and demographic breakdowns of 4927 voters across four Newspolls, shows One Nation’s primary vote (30%) in Queensland is now larger than the primary votes of both the ALP (27%) and the Liberal National Party (23%).

Labor’s primary vote in the most populous states has crashed over the past three months, falling from 37% to 31% in Mr Albanese’s home state of NSW and from 35% to 32% in Victoria.

As support for One Nation almost doubled to 27% in NSW and 21% in Victoria over the same period, the Coalition’s primary votes in the key states fell to 18% and 22% (down from 24% and 26%).

One Nation, which has stolen a big chunk of support from the -Coalition in South Australia and Western Australia, is picking up in popularity among Gen Z and Millennial voters.

The right-wing party has more than doubled support among voters aged 18 to 34 since the previous quarterly analysis in December, rising from 8% to 19% and more women than men are backing One Nation.

One Nation has now moved ahead of the Coalition as the third most popular party for younger Australians, behind Labor (down from 36 to 30% since the previous quarterly snapshot) and the Greens (26%).

Since late last year, the right-wing party has enjoyed a massive jump in support from both Christian voters (up from 16% to 31%) and Australians who speak other languages at home (up from 9% to 19%).

As Mr Albanese this week moved to reposition his government’s response to fuel and economic crises that have damaged the government’s standing, the Newspoll analysis confirms the Labor leader’s personal popularity has also taken a hit across every demographic.

Dissatisfaction with Mr Albanese’s performance as prime minister has spiked across all age groups, genders, states, education backgrounds, wage classes, homeowners and renters.

Women are shifting away from the Albanese government, with only 30% (down from 35% late last year) supporting Labor and 55% (up from 48%) expressing dissatisfaction with the Prime Minister’s performance.

Angus Taylor also faces a tough road after the Coalition under Ms Ley tanked to a record low 18% primary vote in early February.

The Newspoll snapshot shows the Opposition Leader is winning more support from older voters but has struggled to attract voters aged 18 to 34.

Analysis conducted for the first time in Newspoll history shows that 35% of those who voted for the Coalition in 2025 have now shifted support to One Nation, which performed strongly in last month’s South Australian election and has been bolstered by the recruitment of former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce.

The analysis revealed that 9% of those who voted for Labor in 2025 are backing One Nation and that a significant 24% who voted for Others (which includes independents and minor parties such as Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party) have shifted to Senator Hanson’s party.

One Nation is winning big support from voters with no tertiary education (34%) and those with TAFE and technical qualifications (30%), putting them ahead of Labor (27% and 29%) and the Coalition (19% support across both education categories).

University educated voters backed Labor (36%), ahead of the Coalition (21%), One Nation (17%) and the Greens (13%).


 CHATTER:

Jella van den Berg is extending the opening of his Man Mountain painting exhibition in God's Waiting Room alongside the museum today until the end of the month.
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Dooleys and the Royal Hotel are open along with The Gelato shop and Take-a-break while the museum, art exhibition Man Mountain and the Pioneer cottage are all open this morning.
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Remember, double demerit points until Tuesday.
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While on yesterday's lead story on councils and information centres … Maitland has moved its information centre right out to the Art Gallery which is near the sports grounds! Rocket scientists!


Isabel Rodriguez on the dodgems cars in sideshow alley. Pic: Rohan Kelly.

🎢 A day
at the
show on
$100

Despite soaring costs, savvy families have discovered they can still create magical Easter Show memories for their children without breaking the bank, Isabel Rodriguez writes in the Daily Telegraph newspaper today. [click to read more]

The Daily Telegraph went to the show this week with only one $100 note to see how far it could stretch, showing it was enough to cover entry, rides, food, showbags and see the animals.

A concession ticket was $38, a ride on a bumper car was $8.50, a chip on a stick and a lemonade was $15 and a famous Bertie Beetle showbag was only $5. And viewing the animals ∼ such as the petting zoo ∼ is of course totally free.

Erin Margin, of Camden, took her husband Ben and their children, Oliver, 8, and Matilda, 6, to have fun — on a budget.

The kids had an amazing time. Ollie said it was one of the best days of his life, Ms Margin said. I expected to spend more — so not doing that was a positive.

The family started at the petting nursery, then had some fairy floss and played a few carnival games before heading to the rides. Ms Margin said they scheduled their day around free events and spent wisely in between.

We went to the petting pavilion, the pirate high dive and the horseshows, which were all free.

To keep costs down, they used public transport, set spending limits and took water and snacks from home.

We also have discounted days that are worth knowing about, Sydney Royal Easter Show general manager Murray Wilton said. Kids' Day on April 13 offers children’s entry for $18.

As an American in Australia, I was a little nervous before my first visit to this weekend’s Easter Show.

Tasked by my chief of staff at The Saturday Telegraph to see how far $100 goes, I was dropped into the spinning neon world of this Easter spectacle. On my train ride over, I was shocked to see hordes of teenagers up at 8.30am on a school holiday. Very un-American behaviour. And who, exactly, is Bertie Beetle?

I was pleasantly surprised by what looked like an American corndog, apparently called a Dagwood Dog here, and cotton candy masquerading as fairy floss. Really?

Bright displays accosted me from every side — showbags of every shape, size, and brand.

I admired the Kinder egg display (Kinder eggs are illegal in the US, by the way, due to being choking hazards) but settled on the humble $5 Bertie Beetle showbag.

The animal petting area delivered: small children sloppily feeding frenzied goats. We passed farmers who looked remarkably like American cowboys walking their show cattle past an ironically placed smoked beef station.

Then the rides. $20 for one go on the most extreme-looking thing in the adult section — but I had change. I was thrown upside down and backwards.

Ed: The journalist is a student of Boston University on an internship with The Saturday Telegraph. [click the intro to return to front page]



👑 Divvying
up Diana's
fortune

While Princess Diana left a substantial inheritance to her sons, Prince William and Prince Harry, they won't inherit her childhood home, Belinda Palmada reports news.com.au website today. [click to read more]

Althorp in Northamptonshire has belonged to the Spencer family since 1508, the New York Post reports.

The late Princess of Wales' father settled at the sprawling estate in 1975 after becoming Earl Spencer.

To date, the lavish home belongs to the Earl Spencer, Diana’s brother Charles.

And once he dies, his son Louis, Viscount Althorp, will inherit the estate — meaning the Prince of Wales or Duke of Sussex will not be entitled to the 90-room property.

Diana left behind many possessions when she died in a Paris car crash in 1997 at age 36.

According to news.com.au, the late royal’s will instructed that the majority of her £21 million ($A40 million) estate go to William and Harry.

The princes received inheritances on their respective 30th birthdays — William reportedly got £10 million ($A19 million) and Harry slightly more, as he had accrued further interest.

Harry also received his mother’s famous wedding dress, while William got her distinct engagement ring, which comprises an 18-carat sapphire surrounded by diamonds that his wife Catherine now wears.

Diana left keepsakes ranging from an antique clock to various watercolour paintings to her 17 godchildren.

She also left her butler and friend Paul Burrell about £50,000 ($A95,000) in cash.

According to reports, Diana’s net worth at the time of her death was estimated to be around £21 million ($A40 million).

Diana received a huge settlement when she and King Charles divorced in 1996.

The New York Times reported she received about £17 million ($A31.5 million) plus an additional £400,000 ($840,200) per year.

Diana was allowed to keep her title Princess of Wales, but was required to give up the title of Her Royal Highness.

Queen Elizabeth II was reportedly happy for Diana to keep the title but Charles was rumoured to have insisted on its removal.

According to the Independent Diana was permitted to retain her apartment at Kensington Palace, which had been the martial home for both her and Charles.

She was granted exclusive use of Apartments eight and nine, which spanned three floors.

After Diana’s death, her residence was stripped bare and lay vacant for 10 years after her death. It was split back into two apartments.

The units were turned into offices. Apartment 8 was being used by four of Charles’s charities and Apartment 9 housed the office for General Sir David Richards, then Chief of the Defence Staff.

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🎭 Minister
accused of
discrimination

South Asian Muslim and caste-oppressed Hindu community representatives accuse multiculturalism minister and department of discrimination, Adeshola Ore reports on the The Guardian website. [click to read more].

According to an email seen by Guardian Australia, the Human Rights Commission last month accepted the complaint, against Steve Kamper and his department, for investigation.

The Human Rights Commission can accept a complaint when it is reasonably arguable that the alleged conduct is unlawful discrimination.

The complaint, lodged in December by the Alliance Against Islamophobia and Periyar Ambedkar Thoughts Circle of Australia (Patca), alleges Kamper and Multicultural NSW failed to investigate the groups' allegations about the Hindu Council of Australia.

It was also alleged that both minimised concerns raised by Muslim and caste-oppressed communities.

In a separate complaint, now before the Human Rights Commission, the Alliance Against Islamophobia also alleged the Hindu Council of Australia had engaged in repeated instances of Islamophobia in social media posts.

Surinder Jain, a spokesperson for the Hindu council, said it was not against any community or faith group.

HCA does not promote or engage in any form of discrimination, Jain said.

The complaint alleges Kamper and the department continued to endorse the Hindu Council of Australia’s position on the NSW Faith Affairs Council ∼ an advisory body to the government comprising representatives from 12 religions ∼ after being made aware in December that the Human Rights Commission had accepted a complaint against the Hindu group.

Jain said the complaint provided no reason at all why HCA should not continue in its public role on the NSW Faith Affairs Council.

HCA takes that role very seriously and remains (in its respectful opinion) suitable to carry out that role, he said.

The Alliance Against Islamophobia and Patca also alleged Kamper and the department had failed to meet community leaders to address widely reported incidents of caste-based discrimination and harassment perpetrated by individuals aligned with Hindu nationalist ideology

The complaint also outlines allegations that Multicultural NSW omitted any reference to caste-based discrimination in its state of community relations reports for 2023 and 2024, despite the existence of substantial community concern and the statutory requirement to report on matters affecting community cohesion.

It also alleged there was an absence of references to Hindu nationalist extremism in these reports.

A spokesperson for Kamper said the minister was aware a complaint had been lodged with the Human Rights Commission.

The NSW government is committed to ensuring that all communities feel respected and supported, and discrimination of any kind has no place in NSW, the spokesperson said.

Multicultural NSW has met with the organisation that made the complaint on several occasions to hear their concerns and have discussed with them at length the matters they raised.

Guardian Australia has previously reported on concerns within the Indian diaspora about caste discrimination in Australia that remains systemic, according to recent research.

Community leaders have also raised fears about divisions within the Indian-Australian community, with some Hindu nationalists using Facebook and WhatsApp groups to spread divisive rhetoric targeting minority groups including Sikhs and Muslims.

The Human Rights Commission complaint alleges a breach of section nine of the Racial Discrimination Act, which makes conduct involving exclusion, restriction or preference based on race, colour, descent or national or ethnic origin unlawful.

But the commission did not accept the complaint’s allegation of a breach of section 18C of the act, according to the email viewed by Guardian Australia, saying it had not provided information of a reasonably arguable claim of racial hatred.

The commission can facilitate a conciliation process between parties to try to resolve the complaint but it cannot decide whether unlawful discrimination occurred. If a complaint is not resolved or is discontinued, complainants can lodge action in the federal or circuit court.

Multicultural NSW was approached for comment. [click the intro to return to front page]


 COMMENT:

Murrurundi Times news site with items covering national news and Upper Hunter region including the township of Murrurundi
Bob Hawke famously challenged the federal Liberal Party in the 1980s: If you can't govern yourselves you can't govern the country. The Victorian Liberal Party is in much the same position. writes Peta Credlin, in The Australian today. [click to read more]

Its internal inadequacies mean the worst state Labor government in the country may be re-elected for a fourth term, not because it commands any real voter support but because the alternative has even less.

That the Liberal Party failed to win the last state election, in 2022, against a government that had turned Melbourne into the most locked-down city in the world showed almost epic ineptitude.

But intimidated by premier Daniel Andrews and plagued by factional wars, the Liberals thought their best plan was to out-Labor Labor with a leader, in Matthew Guy, whom voters had already comprehensively rejected in 2019.

Predictably, offered a choice between an oppressive and incompetent Labor government and a Liberal opposition aping it, voters stuck with the devil they knew.

If anything, since then it has got even worse. The Liberals have had a further three leaders in the past 12 months.

Plus almost no policy other than the no-brainers to repeal the emergency services levy, which taxes farmers for the volunteer firefighting they mostly do themselves, and to repeal the Victorian version of the voice — the federal version of which Victorian voters rejected 54-46 at the 2023 referendum (but which, earlier, state Liberals had supported).

Despite this, the Labor government’s travails - the latest being its complicity in CFMEU corruption claims that have added perhaps $15bn to the cost of its much-hyped Big Build - mean the Libs are now just marginally ahead in the polls.

Not by enough to be confident of the 7%-plus two-party-preferred swing needed to win, yet by enough to know that if only they could avoid making themselves the issue they might finally fall over the line.

But that was then, this is now, and two things have hit them hard: the inexorable rise of One Nation and the Moira Deeming preselection debacle which, given the fight they have to win 16 seats, is an extraordinary act of self-harm.

Deeming is the upper house Liberal MP who helped to organise a women’s rights rally in 2023 that was gatecrashed by neo-Nazis; who was accused by her then leader, John Pesutto, of herself being a neo-Nazi sympathiser; who was subsequently expelled from the Liberal partyroom, only successfully to sue Pesutto for defamation; and who was then readmitted to the partyroom and promoted — only to be beaten last weekend for preselection by a serial candidate accused of ethnic branch-stacking.

Who was then dumped as the endorsed candidate himself for giving a convicted pedophile a glowing pre-sentence personal reference despite knowing what it was for and subsequently denying that he'd done so.

You cannot make this stuff up, can you?

There are recent precedents where head office has simply endorsed candidates, but instead of doing this with Deeming ∼beaten by someone who should never have been allowed to run ∼ the Victorian Liberal Party has now called for a fresh preselection with nominations to close at noon on Thursday.

Already, moderates are hitting the phones to marshal the ousted Dinesh Gourisetty’s bloc of votes against Deeming, so it is hard to see that she will face a fair fight. Gourisetty, it should be noted, donated to Pesutto’s legal defence, as disclosed in the latest parliamentary returns (as did Heath Williams and former MP Louise Staley, who both publicly abused Deeming online this week).

Right now, Deeming is considering her position, unsure whether to give the Libs one last chance to treat her fairly or to walk, perhaps to join One Nation, a party that would welcome her with open arms, as a conservative woman who has become a hero to everyone who thinks trans rights should not trump women’s rights.

But apart from the preselection, there’s another related but even more troubling issue arising from the whole Deeming saga; namely the Liberal Party’s decision to bankroll the legal costs awarded against Pesutto last year by the Federal Court, costs that he'd previously said would be covered by donors who are, as yet, anonymous but who are refusing to pony up for their mate.

It’s said by those senior Liberals challenging the party’s decision to lend Pesutto the $1.5m he owes Deeming (and thereby to stave off bankruptcy and expulsion from the parliament) that the state party president, Phil Davis, refused to provide state executive with details of the Pesutto loan agreement, any advice about its legality or the names of Pesutto’s supposed guarantors before ramming it through on factional numbers.

It’s thought that the discovery process in this case could expose more factional skulduggery, hence there’s an attempt to delay further hearings until after November’s state election.

Ponder this. The Liberal woman who won a court case over appalling treatment by a Liberal man is turfed out, whereas the Liberal man who lost is given millions out of party coffers to save his skin and gets preselected without a contest. And these clowns wonder why they have a problem with women?

It is no wonder there’s now a formal motion from state executive member Colleen Harkin calling on Davis and his state party vice-presidents to resign, as well as a Change.Org petition from rank-and-file Liberals demanding he go.

Add in the now serious demands for federal intervention and you can readily see that the Liberals have no chance of a November win unless this is resolved.

Under the Liberal Party’s federal constitution, the federal executive can intervene in the affairs of a state division if it is unable or unwilling to perform its functions or if its conduct is seriously detrimental to the interests of the party".

Although this threshold has surely been met, given factional divisions on the federal executive, talk that 80-year-old federal president John Olsen wants to retire and the relatively fragile positions of both the state and federal parliamentary leadership, the appetite for intervention is unclear.

What is clear, though, is that One Nation poll numbers in Victoria are surging and, as SA shows, that would mean a win for Labor.

If the Liberals don't remove the Allan government, on top of all their other recent failures, the party’s doom spiral would be cemented.

Without decisive action, what has been the most successful political party in Australian history, like its predecessors the Nationalist Party and the United Australia Party, could itself be passing into history.


Murrurundi Times news site with items covering national news and Upper Hunter region including the township of Murrurundi
It is not inherently wrong for governments to smooth shocks that consumers could not reasonably insure against. On the contrary, that has always been the governing principle in times of calamity — whether epidemics or war. Henry Ergas writes in the The Australian today. [click to read more]

There is no reason that principle should not apply to the current spike in oil prices. Unlike the shocks of 1973 and 1979, this surge is likely to prove temporary; if it does not, any measure the government adopts can be reversed, allowing price signals to reassert themselves.

In the meantime, shifting part of the immediate burden on to future taxpayers ∼ who may bear it in less turbulent conditions ∼ is defensible, just as it was during Covid.

But that does not let the government off the hook. While households could not have insured themselves against this shock, governments have no such excuse.

Governments repeatedly warned

The fragility of Australia’s fuel security is not a newly discovered risk. For decades, experts have warned ∼ repeatedly and in detail ∼ of the need to guard against supply disruptions: by building stockpiles, preserving access to refining capacity and supporting rather than strangling domestic production.

Against that background, the absence of preparation is not merely surprising; it is inexcusable. Nor is this a one-off failure.

Much the same was true of Covid, despite the efforts made during the Howard years ∼ notably by Tony Abbott ∼ to put epidemic preparedness on a surer footing. Faced with two such serious debacles in quick succession, one inevitably recalls Oscar Wilde: to fail once may be misfortune; to fail twice begins to look like carelessness.

Carelessness — and something worse. What, precisely, have Canberra’s energy experts been doing, other than producing glossy reports on the so-called energy transition — a transition that has now left us without energy? Having spent years denouncing fossil fuels, officials might now acquaint themselves with the elementary fact that they remain indispensable.

Intellectual failure

The failure here is not merely administrative; it is intellectual. As Dwight D. Eisenhower put it, plans are useless but planning is indispensable.

It forces one to confront how many things can go wrong and to identify those that matter most. Above all, it guards against a deeply ingrained error: the tendency to confuse the unfamiliar with the improbable, to assume that what has not yet happened will not happen at all.

Of course, no system of foresight is perfect. As Cicero wryly noted, soothsayers can scarcely cross each other in the forum without winking — a warning against taking their claims too seriously. But that is no defence of the scale of failure we have witnessed. When dangers lurk, it is impossible to foresee everything; it takes a special talent to foresee nothing.

Albos reckless governing

Nor is the problem confined to planning. It extends to learning — and here, too, the record is dismal. The Albanese government’s politically convenient refusal to conduct a serious, independent reckoning with Covid is not merely disappointing: it is reckless.

Everyone errs; only fools refuse to learn from their mistakes. Whether this episode triggers a genuinely independent and public review ∼ one Australians can actually trust ∼ will be the clearest test of whether the lesson has been grasped.

This much is certain: there will be more epidemics, more wars, more supply shocks. In the face of that reality, we are entitled to expect at least one quality from those who govern us: what Aristotle called prudence, which is not caution but judgment, seeing danger coming and acting before it is too late. At present, we see it when it punches us in the jaw.

A medieval sage once asked: Who owns the unexpected? The answer, he thought, was an omniscient, omnipotent God. Nowadays, it seems to be Canberra, a fractious committee of trumped-up demigods, who turn out to be horribly inept mortals. Little wonder we end up paying the price.



 OVERSEAS:

⬤ Lauren Jackson writes in the New York Times a bold claim is spreading across the United States, amplified by politicians, preachers and a new generation of religious influencers. Christianity is in the midst of a nationwide revival, they say. A decades-long exodus from church isn't just over — it's reversing. "There has been a tremendous renewal in religion, faith, Christianity and belief in God," President Trump said in his State of the Union address, adding, "this is especially true among young people." This purported religious renaissance is getting a lot of attention. Gen Z is making church cool again, The New York Post wrote. Roman Catholic churches are seeing a surge in converts, The Times reported. Manhattan's downtown set say one priest's homilies are "absolute bars"; his wine and cheese night has appeared in The Atlantic. (I'm guilty of this, too. I couldn't resist this story about missionaries going viral on TikTok.) But anecdotes don't make a national trend. And experts have urged caution: "These stories are a very small drop in a very large ocean, whose currents have for decades been taking people away from religion," said David Campbell, a political scientist at Notre Dame who researches secularization. "For us to call this a true revival, we would need to see a level of conversion that we have never seen in the history of the United States." And Pew Research refuted claims of a Gen Z revival, writing that there is "no clear evidence that this kind of nationwide religious resurgence is underway." So why is everyone talking about it? There is one thing we can say for sure. After decades of religious decline, people have stopped leaving churches. Secularization is officially on pause. I've written about that a few times, including in this newsletter and a new study just found that it still appears to be true — that the share of Americans who are not religious has dropped for the third year in a row. That's a big deal. It upends decades of assumptions that the U.S. was on an inevitable march toward godlessness. But just because people have stopped leaving church en masse, that doesn't mean a revival is underway, that suddenly the country is rushing back to the pews. Religious change doesn't happen that quickly. Before secularization stalled, about 40 million Americans had left church over a few decades. This had extraordinary ripple effects. It changed how people gather, vote, marry, volunteer and find meaning in their lives. To undo that isn't just a matter of people changing their beliefs, as Christian Smith, the author of "Why Religion Went Obsolete," told me. It requires significant behavioral change — new rituals, habits and community. In short, conversion demands that people change their identities. And that takes time. For now, we are not seeing spikes in church attendance in national data, Chip Rotolo at Pew Research told me. And with birthrates dropping, fewer babies are being born into churchgoing families.





The Murrurundi Times is owned, compiled and written by Des Dugan. Email