Saturday 16-05-2026 6:19am

Johannes Leak cartoon in today's The Australian newspaper.

And now for the also-rans

By the time for being elected comes around nobody will remember the also-rans budget speeches but they are still worth headlines in the name of equalness. Angus Taylor has vowed to index income tax brackets to inflation. He also promised to deliver one of the biggest cuts to immigration in Australian history, vowing to crack down on welfare for non-citizens. In his pitch to business, Mr Taylor said a Coalition government would expand the instant asset write-off to $50,000. "We're too dependent on other countries for critical supplies like jet fuel, diesel, and fertiliser. And yet, we have an abundance of resources beneath our feet," Mr Taylor said. "We could be self-sufficient and re-industrialise in key areas — if we stopped locking up our resources and turbocharged digging and drilling." He said scrapping net-zero would bring down energy prices and encourage industry. One Nation's policies, which include a gas plan to be unveiled next week, spanned commitments from ending bracket creep and slashing immigration to ditching net zero and banning foreign ownership of farmland and water assets. But One Nation's cultural policies were among the starkest elements of Senator Hanson's speech. "We will abolish divisive cultural departments and race-based programs that divide Australians by skin colour or ancestry. Every Australian will be treated as equal under one flag and one culture," she said. "Help will be given on the basis of genuine need — not race. "Equal rights for all, and special rights for none. No more taxpayer-funded Welcome to Country rituals. Unity builds strength. Division destroys it." Nobody got an answer to the coming stagnation.


 SPORT:

Blue night; banana benders lament

It was not the night of the banana benders! The Blues beat the Maroons 14-10 in the NRLW Origin match while in the AFL Geelong gave Brisbane a hiding 117-76. [click to read more]

It took not one but two, moments of sheer Origin desperation for NSW to claim back-to-back series wins after overcoming Queensland 14-10 at Suncorp Stadium, Fatima Kdouh reviews in this morning’s The Australian.

Maroons winger Jasmine Peters looked to have won the game for the Maroons on two separate occasions, only to be denied by the Blues' steely goal line defence.

The first clutch defensive effort came from playmaker Jesse Southwell after she made a brilliant cover tackle on Peters mid-way through the second half with the Maroons trailing by four points.

It was a remarkable effort from Southwell, who only minutes before looked like her night was over after going down with what appeared to be a neck injury.

Not to be outdone, Blues utility Teagan Berry came-up with the match winning play in the final minute of the nail-biting clash.

Just when Peters looked like she had won the game, again, for the Maroons, Berry produced a match winning tackle at the death.

Jasmine Peters scooped up that ball and looked like she was going to cross in the corner and she’s a strong girl as well, Blues coach John Strange said.

Jesse just picked her up and threw her over the sideline right at the death there.

They passed the ball out and Teagan Berry threw her body on the line and did everything possible to stop them getting the try that was going to level the game. Lauren Brown’s such a great competitor and she would have loved that moment as a goal kicker to win the game for a state.

The Maroons rued their lack of discipline in game one but hardly fared any better at Suncorp Stadium.

Three errors and two penalties in the opening 10 minutes of Thursday night’s clash had the Queenslanders on the back foot early on.

By the break, the Maroons had made seven errors and four penalties.

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 STOCKMARKET:

More record closing highs as ship slip through the strait

U.S. stocks advanced on Thursday, lifted by a rally in tech stocks as investors absorbed generally solid economic data and watched for developments from Beijing, where U.S. President Trump was engaged in a high-stakes meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, Reuters reports on today's website. [click to continue reading]

All three major U.S. stock indexes gained ground, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq setting their latest in a series of record closing highs.

The blue-chip Dow closed just 0.3% shy of its all-time closing high reached on February 10.

Everybody’s asking the same question: how much longer does this (rally) go on There’s a lot of people that are loving this rally, but they're also antsy at the same time, said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. You have to be in it to win it, not just sitting on the sidelines watching the market go to all-time highs.

Trump attended the summit along with an entourage that included Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Jensen Huang, chief executive of artificial-intelligence chipmaker Nvidia.

Nvidia’s shares closed 4.4% higher after the U.S. cleared the sales of the company’s H200 chips to Chinese firms.

The summit between Trump and Xi is intended to hash out a broad array of issues, including trade, U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway, through which Asia gets much of its crude, has been effectively shut down during the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

Obviously, these are very high stakes meetings, said Michael Monaghan, portfolio manager at Founder ETFs in Dallas. It is certainly great power competition, but I think that these two economies will be better off working together.

I'm happy to see the two leaders collaborating, a tone of collaboration, and hopefully we'll see that follow through in long-term agreements, Monaghan added.

On the economic front, retail sales were in line with expectations, but propped up by rising gasoline prices resulting from the Iran war. Gasoline was largely responsible for the biggest jump in import prices since October 2022.

A series of inflation reports this week showed the risk of spiking energy costs metastasizing to other goods and services, extinguishing hopes for near-term rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid called inflation the most pressing risk to the U.S. economy, which he characterized as resilient. While Schmid is not a voter on monetary policy this year, his remarks reflect the view of the Fed’s hawkish wing.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 370.26 points, or 0.75%, to 50,063.46, the S&P 500 gained 56.99 points, or 0.77%, to 7,501.24 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 232.88 points, or 0.88%, to 26,635.22.

Among the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, tech shares led the percentage gainers, while materials suffered the steepest loss.

Semiconductor stocks were lifted by Nvidia, while other artificial intelligence-related firms, including Qualcomm, Intel, Sandisk and Micron slid between 3.4% and 6.1%.

Sectors that have suffered amid continued AI fervor, and the ongoing strife in the Middle East, were among the session’s best performers, including software & services, transports and regional banks.

Cisco surged 13.4% to touch an all-time high after the computer networking giant announced almost 4,000 job cuts as part of a restructuring scheme, and raised its annual revenue forecast.

U.S.-listed shares of tech infrastructure firm Nebius Group rose 6.7% after Northland Capital raised its target price by 15.3% to $248 per share.

China has agreed to buy 200 jets from Boeing, President Trump told Fox News. Even so, the planemaker’s stock slid 4.7%.

Chipmaker Cerebras jumped 68.2% in its U.S. market debut.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.6-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 500 new highs and 95 new lows on the NYSE.

On the Nasdaq, 2,755 stocks rose and 1,980 fell as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.39-to-1 ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 30 new 52-week highs and 11 new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 113 new highs and 130 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 18.77 billion shares, compared with the 18.17 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.


 NEWS:

💵 Better hurry
up and die?

On the back of the clampdown on family trusts, a popular trust structure thought to be exempt is actually a surprise inclusion in Jim Chalmers' budget, sparking alarm in the wealth sector reports The Australian today's website. [click to read more]
The Albanese government has blindsided the financial sector with a surprise death tax on wills and estates, triggering urgent calls for clarification from wealth advisers.

Under new budget measures, family trusts are set to be hit with a minimum 30 per cent tax rate. The new rule will also apply to the most common form of estate planning trust: the Testamentary Discretionary Trust.

We had no warning of this, and I had hoped there might be a carve-out for this area as there had been the last time it was mentioned in the Shorten election campaign of 2016 - but it’s clearly not there, estate planning expert Rachel Rofe said. The government can say that technically we are not taxing assets in estates, but it is a tax to be introduced on income generated on those assets … This is a death duty by any other name.

The new changes will apply only to Testamentary Discretionary Trusts commenced after July 1, 2028.

Many advisers had understood the budget announcements meant an exemption would apply to any type of trust relating to wills and estates.

Inside the estate planning sector, there are two types of trust popular among advisers: Testamentary Discretionary trusts and Testamentary Fixed trusts. Only Testamentary Fixed trusts were spelled out as an exemption in the budget measures, which come into effect in July 2028.

A spokesman for the government said Testamentary Discretionary trusts needed to fall under the new family trust rule in the future or the broader policy would be undermined".

Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers have repeatedly denied they would pursue a death tax since their Tuesday budget, which broke election promises on negative gearing and capital gains tax.

Opposition Treasury spokesman Tim Wilson in question time asked the Prime Minister whether he would rule out changing his mind about the death tax?

Mr Albanese did not engage, instead attacking the Coalition.

What I can say … is that we are the party that went to an election with lower taxes, Mr Albanese said.

The inclusion of the popular Testamentary Discretionary trust into a new tax net just as Australia is on the cusp of a major intergenerational wealth transfer will cause consternation in the wealth sector.

Like all trusts, Testamentary Discretionary trusts allow income streaming and asset protection but also offer the trustee the ability to react to a beneficiary’s future problems, unlike Testamentary Fixed trusts that are, by definition, inflexible.

On the latest Money Puzzle podcast, Barron’s Top 150 adviser Will Hamilton of Hamilton Wealth Partners says 'testamentary trusts were to be excluded from the new family trusts rules, as I understood it.

But Rofe says she was not surprised: It’s a slippery slope, we have seen the signals of this for some time.

Earlier this year, The Australian reported concerns among advisers that death taxes were steadily emerging inside the tax system. The most contentious of the changes involved the new super tax.

Put simply, in the first version of the new super tax, it did not matter at what time of the year an investor died; the estate was not liable for the new tax. But in an updated version, it matters significantly. Financial adviser Liam Shorte said it had created a precedent for death taxes.

Back to Top


 LOCAL CHATTER:
Arrowlfield Scone Cup race day starting at 11:00 preluded by the Scone RSL Champagne breakfast at the Scone RSL starting at 10:00. Scone Arts and Craft exhibition is open at the Scone Arts & Craft Centre 10-4:00 and the Primary School Arts Prizes exhibition in the Upper Hunter Library is running from 10-5:30pm.
♦♦♦♦
And we are sad to see the Quirindi Advocate has followed the closure of the Northern Daily Leader. The Leader and it's printing press, are owned by Antony Catalano and Alex Waislitz at Australian Community Media. That mob closed a lot of the country newspapers, including the Scone Advocate when covid hit. The Murrurundi Times print edition was morphed into the Quirindi Advocate almost a century ago. That newspaper was the region's only independent newspaper after ACM bought the SMH's country newspaper bundle.
♦♦♦♦
What rain? The BOM didn't see any but we felt some in south Murrurundi. Wet the grass but didn't clean the dear poo off the driveway.
♦♦♦♦
A reminder from tomorrow at 3:00am until Tuesday at 3:00am there are no passenger trains on the Hunter Line. The ARTC is upgrading something or other. Gotta get a bus.
♦♦♦♦
And, bye-the-bye, don't rob a pub on Stockton Island. While the locals drank a guy ran around waving a gun and shouting demanding money from the till — nobody seemed too concerned. One bloke threw a barstool at him and hit him in the back, then stabbed him in the shoulder while a girl filmed it all and then a couple of guys left their beers, grabbed the robber, held him down and handed him over to the cops when they came … the embarrassment was too much … the robber was sobbing at the end. The firearm was later found to be a gas-operated gel ball air pistol. He got six years for his trouble. Judge Tim Gartelmann took into account Bourke's deprived upbringing, mental health diagnoses and the extra-curial punishment he received at the hands of the patrons when he ordered Bourke serve a non-parole period of three-and-a-half years. (Newcastle Herald)

 NEWS:

Delta Goodrem celebrates after making it through to the final of the Eurovision Song Contest. Pic: Getty Images

🎙 Delta
sweeps into
Eurovision finals

Delta Goodrem has taken Australia to the Eurovision final after delivering a dramatic performance of her anthemic song, Eclipse, during the second semi-final in Vienna. the Daily Telegraph newspaper reports today.

Delta Goodrem has wowed her way through to the Eurovision Song Contest final after she stunned the rapturous crowd with a dramatic performance of her anthemic song, Eclipse.

Goodrem, who performed 11th on the bill just after fellow favourite, Denmark, put in a powerful performance that left the audience cheering as a sea of Australian flags waved in the packed crowd.

This is Australia’s winning moment, one Eurovision fan wrote on X, while others described the performance as stunning, magnificent and easily top five material.

Radiant, fearless and breathtaking in every way, you made Australia so incredibly proud. This was more than a performance — it was passion, power, and pure magic, Goodrem’s gown designer Nicky Apostolopoulos of the the label Verlani posted on Instagram.

We are beyond proud of you, Delta. What a glorious, history-making moment.

Waiting to hear the results, a nervous Goodrem patted her heart and then waved joyfully at the camera after the result was announced, celebrating with her team.

Advancing alongside Australia to the final after their semi-final performances are Denmark, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Norway, Romania, Malta, Cyprus, Albania, and Czechia.

They all join Belgium, Croatia, Finland, Greece, Israel, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Serbia and Sweden.

Also making the final are the big five; Germany, Italy, France, Spain and the UK. As host country, Austria also gets an automatic entry into Sunday’s main event.

Goodrem performed for one of the biggest global audiences of her career as Australia’s representative in the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest in the second semi-final, which kicked off at 5am Friday AEST.

After her spectacular dress rehearsal on Wednesday, the singer-songwriter said she would give it a good crack on the global stage.

The closest Australia ever came to taking out the Eurovision Song Contest came in 2016 through Dami Im, who finished in second place.

Fifteen countries did battle at the Wiener Stadthalle for the remaining spots in Sunday AEST’s showpiece at Austria’s biggest indoor arena.

Eurovision is the world’s biggest live televised music event, typically reaching more than 150 million viewers and Vienna 2026 is the 70th edition of the glitzy show where spectacle and drama go hand-in-hand.

Australia has appeared at Eurovision by invitation since 2015, finishing runner-up in 2016.

But the country could go one better this time around thanks to Goodrem.

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🎩 Poms getting
set for an
invasion

Hordes of unhappy people from this country are abandoning their homeland and setting their sights on Australia — and they're coming for our swankiest suburbs reports news.com.au website today. [click to read more]

Data released by realestate.com.au showed a staggering 28% jump in Poms searching for rental properties in Australia in the 12 months to March.

And they're choosing some of the country’s swankiest suburbs.

The data, collected from searches made via realestate.com.au, found Bondi was the most sought-after suburb, followed by South Yarra and Richmond in Melbourne, then Coogee in Sydney.

Brits wanting to buy have their sights set on Melbourne and surrounding suburbs like Prahran, Armadale and Elwood. South Yarra topped the chart while Richmond placed third.

For Aussie migration agent Mark Welch, who helps Brits navigate Australia’s complex visa system from his office in Edinburgh, the news comes as no surprise.

He said beyond the promise of a better lifestyle, weather, opportunity and pay, Brits are also leaving due to a lacklustre economy and splintering political scene.

Mr Welch said the result from recent local council elections in the UK, which saw Labour all but wiped out by resurgent parties like Reform UK and Plaid Cymru in Wales, stirs things up.

(The election) doesn't solve anything for anyone. There’s a lack of good alternatives — this is not my view, this is the general view. You vote for one (candidate) but you vote for them through gritted teeth most of the time, he told news.com.au.

And Brexit has not been great. The general feeling is that’s not been handled well. (Keir) Starmer coming in two years ago (as prime minister) has also not been handled well either. It’s a combination of all these things.

People are disgruntled, and I think they're taking things into their own hands and they want to move.

The Aussie visa expert said he’s noticed a roughly 20% uptick in Brits asking about a move Down Under. He said many are ineligible because they don't have the skill sets Australian employers want but there are many that are.

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🏥 Heavy hand
needed for
NDIS reform

NDIS cuts could leave some participants with a funding gap. How will the changes affect you? Proposals also grant the health minister power to change disability support rules without state or territory approval. [click to read the rest of the story].

The changes form part of a major savings measure designed to tip $36.2bln back into the federal budget over the next four years.

As we peel back hundreds of pages of legislation and accompanying explanatory documents, here’s what you need to know.

Starting with one of its most contentious proposals, Labor’s plan will establish a legal framework to determine who can, and cannot, access the NDIS.

Butler said this will be focused on limiting scheme entry to people with substantially reduced functional capacity, which will be determined by a standardised, evidence-based tool.

The bill will also clarify the meaning of permanence and only grant participants access to the NDIS if they can first show they have exhausted all appropriate treatment options.

Finally, it will include more detail on how NDIS eligibility may be limited for individuals already accessing support from other mainstream services.

For example, if a person is receiving workers compensation or motor vehicle accident scheme support, they may not be eligible for the NDIS.

As foreshadowed by Butler, the legislation will rework plan reassessments - when a participant requests additional funding for their NDIS plan because of unexpected or unbudgeted costs. The proposed changes will narrow such requests to moments of significant and ongoing change to participants' needs.

The NDIS determines support funding on a reasonable and necessary basis, but the bill will add sustainability and equity to funding considerations.

Plans will be suspended if reasonable attempts to contact a participant go unanswered. Plans can be revoked entirely if a participant cannot be contacted after being suspended for at least 90 days.

Basic registration details will be required for a number of NDIS providers. The National Disability Insurance Agency will be given new monitoring and investigation powers to deal with any wrongdoing but will need to undertake risk assessments before approaching participants.

Other changes include: Payments made to participants who have not kept appropriate records can be raised by the NDIA as debts. ● Providers without records could be handed a civil penalty. ● NDIS supports will need to be claimed within 90 days of delivery, reduced from two years. ● Automation for processing claims and payments will be allowed.

While some specific changes to the NDIS are yet to be determined, the proposal will expand the health minister’s powers considerably.

One of those changes includes the ability to reduce funding for whole groups of supports. There are four main funding groups within a participant’s budget: core, capacity building, capital and recurring.

Core supports include personal care and transport, capacity building includes therapies and work programs, and capital supports include home modifications and assistive technology.

Last month, Butler flagged he intended to claw back funding for social and community participation activities (within the capacity building funding pool) because it had grown substantially bigger. Daily activities (also within capacity building funding) are also on the downsizing list.

The minister will also have final say over maximum prices for NDIS supports and services.

Finally, the bill includes a 12-month Henry VIII clause to give the minister sweeping powers to directly change NDIS laws without needing the support of states and territories.

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-->


👪 And then
there's Family
First …

Family First candidates contesting the next New South Wales and Victorian elections will, if elected, push to restore clearly designated male and female toilets in public buildings in order to protect the privacy, dignity and safety of girls and women, national director and NSW Legislative Council candidate Lyle Shelton says in a press release today.

Mr Shelton said Australians were increasingly alarmed at the push by governments and bureaucracies to erase sex-based spaces in favour of so-called all-gender facilities.

Politicians are caving in to the LGBTQA+ political lobby and pandering to men who think they are women and demand access to girls' and women’s spaces, Mr Shelton said.

Women and girls should not be forced to surrender their privacy and dignity because political leaders are too weak to stand up to radical gender ideology.

Mr Shelton said Family First would campaign for state governments to reject and reverse provisions of the new National Construction Code which allow developers to replace up to half of male and female toilets with all-gender facilities.

This agenda has never been driven by ordinary Australians. It has been pushed relentlessly by activist groups seeking to normalise the idea that biological sex is meaningless, he said.

The result is that women and girls increasingly feel unsafe, uncomfortable and excluded from spaces designed specifically for them.

Mr Shelton commended the Australian Christian Lobby for bringing public attention to the issue through its recent campaign.

The Australian Christian Lobby deserves credit for exposing what is happening and mobilising Australians to speak up before it is too late, he said.

The fact that Tasmania stripped these provisions from its version of the code and the Northern Territory rejected the code entirely proves governments can resist this ideological overreach if they choose.

Girls and women should not have to self-exclude from public spaces or feel anxious every time they use a bathroom because politicians are bowing to activist pressure, he said.

Family First will fight to restore common sense and protect the rights and dignity of women and girls.

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 COMMENT:

Murrurundi Times news site with items covering national news and Upper Hunter region including the township of Murrurundi
While cities welcome visitors to Gadigal country", a little girl’s death reveals the devastating truth about life in remote Australia, Peta Credlin writes in the Daily Telegraph today. [click to read more]

It’s all very well welcoming people to Gadigal country in Sydney but how about we talk about the reality of life for so many Aboriginal people living outside our big cities.

Because it is the life lived in town camps ∼ best described as hellholes by Alice Springs local Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price ∼ that’s far more urgent today than who arrived 250 years ago.

We're not supposed to talk about Sharon Granites any more ∼ the sweet little five-year-old abducted last weekend ∼ because she’s dead. Her family want her described as Kumanjayi Little Baby for cultural reasons.

Modern day aboriginal culture

But it’s modern-day Aboriginal culture ∼ the unemployment, family dysfunction, and substance abuse that characterises remote Australia ∼ that’s led to her tragic, premature death.

The bed that this little girl was abducted from was a grotty mattress on a filthy floor, in a room full of empty Jim Beam bottles. Her father was in jail and there'd been a bit of a party before she disappeared. The DNA of two persons has been found on her underwear. Her accused killer was a frequent prison inmate too, not long released.

We talk a lot about reconciliation for the wrongs of the past. But what about rectifying the wrongs of the present? We argue incessantly about the failures of government to end Indigenous disadvantage but what about the failures of Aboriginal people too?

Town camps natorious

The town camps around Alice Springs have been notorious for years. Very few residents have real jobs, very few of the children go to school regularly, the police often feel powerless to enforce the law because they won't be supported by woke magistrates and weak governments and child protection officers feel they can't do what they otherwise would, for fear of creating another stolen generation.

Just because people happen to be Aboriginal doesn't mean that different standards apply.

The government says that this is not the time to talk about policy change. But if it’s not done now, everyone will move on until the next child dies.

Ask yourself this, would the outrage be different if this little girl and her alleged killer were from a nice suburb in the city? Where are the activists?


Murrurundi Times news site with items covering national news and Upper Hunter region including the township of Murrurundi
"Promises and pie-crust," Jonathan Swift wrote in 1738, "are made to be broken." Vladimir Lenin, who liked the line, treated it as a slogan. Anthony Albanese treats it as a principle, Henry Ergas points out in the The Australian today. [click to read more]

The Prime Minister’s defence for repudiating assurances he had insistently reiterated ∼ indeed, for the 50th time ∼ is that Australia faces a crisis of intergenerational equity. But as Jonathan Pincus and I demonstrated on these pages, the claim is analytically incoherent and empirically threadbare. Nor, even if there were such inequities, would that justify the abrupt abandonment of repeatedly affirmed undertakings.

Serious governments seek democratic consent for contentious measures they had previously assured voters they would not introduce. John Howard did so with the GST: having ruled it out, he reversed openly, took it to the 1998 election, and proceeded only on the mandate he won there.

Greatest tax take in commonwealth history

The reason the Albanese government has not followed suit is neither urgency nor necessity. It is fear: fear that despite the opposition’s parlous state, voters would punish a government that has spent freely, governed carelessly and is now poised to extract the greatest tax take in commonwealth history.

The budget’s own numbers make the reality plain. Even accepting Treasury’s assumptions, the budget measures will increase housing supply over the next decade by less than one-third of 1%, while housing demand is likely to rise more than 15 times as quickly. This is not serious economic reform. It is a revenue grab wrapped in the language of moral urgency.

Corroding public trust

The inevitable result of that gap between political rhetoric and political practice is to corrode public trust. Trust, after all, is not a natural disposition; it is a social achievement, slowly accumulated and quickly squandered.

The word itself reveals the point. The Old English treow lies behind both truth and trust; since at least the 15th century, to trust someone has meant to believe that when he says what he will do, he speaks truthfully. Governments can sustain trust only by being truthful and trustworthy — and the institutional form through which those virtues manifest themselves is the promise.

A promise is what binds words to conduct, declarations to action, and electoral consent to subsequent government. Governments owe fidelity to their promises not merely for their own political advantage; they owe it because a healthy democratic life depends upon citizens being able to assume and assess fidelity to public commitments.

Governments need to mean what they say

The credibility of promises is also more broadly crucial to the viability of a free society, whose very essence is that people must order their lives amid continual uncertainty. Promises, including the promise that laws will not be changed capriciously, are what give individuals, families and businesses stable ground on which to plan. As Hannah Arendt wisely observed, they build islands of predictability in the ocean of uncertainty — islands that matter most to those with the fewest resources to absorb sudden policy shocks.

A young couple relying on an investment property to finance homeownership, a retiree dependent on hard-earned savings, a small business weighing expansion: all rely on governments meaning what they say.

But promises can only fulfil that stabilising role because they belong to the grammar of commitment: to the forms of obligation whose value lies in their relative insulation from changing convenience. A promise abandoned the moment it becomes burdensome is worth no more than the loyalty that melts away at the first sign of difficulty.

The preservation of credible public commitments is especially vital in Australia, where suspicion of the political process long predates contemporary disenchantment. Distrust of politicians was, as John Hirst emphasised, constitutive of the colonial polity itself. The men who entered politics were not thought fit to be trusted - and despite outstanding exceptions, many weren't.

Pioneering scholars of mass behaviour

The endless Australian debate over the accountability of parliamentarians reflected that suspicion. Both the Burkean trustee ∼ who is guided only by the light of his own judgment ∼ and the instructed delegate had their advocates. But it was the latter conception, entrenched by the emerging Labor Party, that ultimately prevailed. Labor parliamentarians were to be mere instruments: controlled by the ALP’s extra-parliamentary wing, bound by a pledge to uphold the platform and required to submit to caucus discipline on pain of political excommunication.

The Australian mass party thus emerged, from the beginning, as an institutional response to distrust: a mechanism designed less to cultivate confidence in politicians than to contain the risks they posed once elected. And Australian voters learned to scrutinise the distance between promise and performance with an intensity rare in comparable democracies. When that gap widened too far, confidence collapsed.

It is against this background that the events of the past three years must be seen. The Albanese government’s record on the central tax promises of two successive elections ∼ stage three, superannuation, and now negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount ∼ does not just constitute a litany of broken commitments; it constitutes the accelerated dismantling of an already tarnished public asset.

The predictable effect is an even more accelerated crisis of political representation. The four-decade arc from 1975’s 4% third-party vote to 2025’s 34% highlights its seemingly inexorable progression.

Withdrawing faithfulness

Those voters who have spurned the major parties are not ideological partisans of any third force; they are observant citizens who, having grasped what the parties no longer deliver, exercise the only sanction the system leaves them. Unable to meaningfully demand or expect faithfulness to a program from parties whose programs have ceased to bind, they withdraw their own faithfulness from those parties altogether.

The alternatives may not be especially attractive nor particularly unifying — but negative coalitions, aimed at punishing a detested foe, form more easily than positive ones precisely because they require only shared aversion rather than common aspiration. In these conditions, anti-system parties flourish, their capacity to aggregate voters a symptom not of democratic renewal but of democratic exhaustion.

To make things worse, governments confronted by a perpetually seething electorate are naturally tempted to govern through stealth and administrative manoeuvre, further impairing the trust whose disappearance produced the crisis of representation in the first place. And when a real, rather than confected, emergency arrives, they discover they can no longer summon the loyalties and willingness to sacrifice on which the survival of free societies ultimately depends.

Public language becomes tactical

No society can govern itself for long on the assumption that public language is merely tactical. Governments that repeatedly break faith with the electorate may secure temporary advantages. But they do so by undermining the confidence that policies announced today will survive long enough to shape behaviour tomorrow. As that confidence erodes, both the effectiveness of public policy and force of democratic authority unravel.

That is the deeper significance of the Albanese government’s conduct. It is not merely bad policy. It is the depletion of a civic inheritance that free societies squander far more easily than they rebuild. Yes, promises can be cracked like pie crusts. But in the end, public trust cracks with them. Lenin, sheltered by brutal authoritarianism, never had to learn that lesson. With the fabric of our democracy rapidly fraying, it is high time Anthony Albanese did.



 FEATURE:

Created by DiDa - http://www.faico.net/dida/

What's the one thing that every pundit and certified member of the Fourth Estate knows? Why, it's that MAGA is finished.

MAGA
isn't
finished!

Roger Kimball in Spectator Australia.



H

ow many stories have we been treated to about 'the fracturing of MAGA?' NPR knows it, Politico intuited it, Salon bet on it and the New Republic salivated over it. 'Trump's MAGA Base Splits Dramatically,' that anti-Trump orifice recently crowed. 'New poll shows Donald Trump's support continues to drop.' Then of course there is the The New York Times, which has predicted and rejoiced in the death of MAGA again and again.

That is ∼ that was ∼ the narrative. What is the reality? Yesterday's primaries tell a very different ∼ in fact, contradictory ∼ story. MAGA's vitality was reaffirmed, as was President Trump's potency as a political imprimatur. Across the board, a majority of the candidates he endorsed trounced their Republican in name only (RINO) rivals

Not what we read

At least 26 MAGA Republicans won last night. Indiana, Michigan, Texas, North Carolina. Wherever there was a primary, MAGA triumphed. In Ohio, Vivek Ramaswamy took some 85 per cent of the vote, winning in every single county.

Those are the facts. What is their significance? I think Kurt Schlichter is correct.

He wrote: MAGA's vitality has been reaffirmed
Inevitably the RINOs will take the wrong lesson from tonight's brutal discipline. They will think that because they personally offended Trump, they got defeated. That's not it. Trump is not our leader. He is our avatar. You dummies screwed with the base and the base, not Donald Trump, made you pay.

Right on cue, the New York Times corroborated Schlichter's prediction. 'Rather than a contest between moderates and conservatives,' this fish wrap of record intoned, 'the primaries became a test of how much deference Republicans owe Mr. Trump and how much control the President holds over rank-and-file voters.'

I would say that this stunning victory is a wake-up call for RINOs, but it isn't. Their narcolepsy is terminal

Demos abandon country

The same can be said of the Democratic party, which, in abandoning their country, also abandoned their electoral prospects.

If you don't know the work of the woman who writes under the name 'LHGray', you should. She is as perceptive as she is amusing, though her diction is not for the faint of heart. 'The Democratic party, as it staggers toward the 2026 midterms,' she wrote in response to last night's political dégringolade, 'is not merely losing.'

It is structurally, psychologically, and philosophically finished … a once-formidable machine reduced to a necrotic loop of obsession, fantasy, and self-sabotage. And the republic is not mourning the loss. It is moving on without them. The Democrats built this cage. Now they will live inside it. Indiana? A bloodbath … RINOs who dared defy the redistricting will of the people got eviscerated.

Sufferings of the damned

All this is true. MAGA isn't finished. In the important work of eviscerating the Democratic party, it's just getting started. And let me add that painful process couldn't happen to a more deserving cohort.

Tertullian says that among the pleasures enjoyed by the blessed in paradise is the spectacle of the sufferings of the damned.

That celebration of Schadenfreude was later repudiated by the Church, but every red-blooded man and woman will recognise and smile at its psychological acuity.



 OVERSEAS:

Sam Sifton writes in The New York Times President Trump said yesterday that U.S. negotiations with Tehran were on "life support." Why? Among other things, Iran wants to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz. A fifth of the world's oil supply flowed through that passage before the war, and now Iran has choked it off. Iranian attacks on passing vessels and a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports have trapped thousands of ships in the Persian Gulf, inducing a global economic crisis. The crisis looms over Trump's summit with China's president, Xi Jinping, later this week. Trump wants Xi to lean on Iran to reopen the strait. This keeps happening. Iran and Iraq stopped ships in the Persian Gulf during the war between those two countries in the 1980s. The conflict spread. Iranian forces intercepted ships bound for Iraq and its allies. It led to a small if deadly naval war that killed more than 400 civilian sailors and damaged 500 commercial vessels along with American warships. Iran's ability to control the strait is a recurring headache for U.S. military leaders. "If you ask me what keeps me awake at night, it's the Strait of Hormuz," one commander said in 2012. Fighting there, another said, "would be like a knife fight in a phone booth." Scholars have argued for centuries that no state can lay claim to the high seas, the ocean common. One jurist from the Dutch Golden Age came up with a term for it: mare liberum, or free sea. Which is fine out in the middle of an ocean. It gets a little more complicated closer to shore, and particularly with choke points like the Strait of Hormuz. For decades, the United States has argued that it has a right to freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, in contrast, has said that it can regulate traffic there. By what right? Can a nation declare the waters off its coastline as its own? How far out do those waters extend? I picked up some light reading: "Legal Vortex in the Strait of Hormuz," a 2014 paper by James Kraska, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College. It could have been written much more recently — like, in February. We spoke yesterday. Kraska has seen this conflict coming for more than a decade. What's going on in the strait is fundamentally a legal dispute, he told me. The U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, a kind of international constitution for the oceans, governs passage there. Neither Washington nor Tehran has ratified it but it reflects "customary international law," which means it is still supposed to be binding, Kraska told me. In other words, Iran can claim that its territorial waters extend 12 nautical miles from its shoreline, which is permitted by the treaty but only if it recognizes the right of free navigation through those waters. (Free navigation, Kraska noted. Charging a toll, as Iran hopes to do, would break the law.) Kraska told me about a similar conflict between Britain and Albania in the late 1940s, over the channel between Greece and the island of Corfu. In an effort to control that strait, Albania fired on Royal Navy warships. Mines in the strait killed dozens of sailors. It didn't lead to war. The case became the first one adjudicated by the International Court of Justice. It ruled that Britain enjoyed the right to sail through and that Albania had a duty to keep the strait clear of mines. Albania, a less powerful nation than Iran, complied. The precedent may end there.




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The Murrurundi Times is owned, compiled and written by Des Dugan. Email