Wednesday 22-04-2026 8:59pm

A woman walks next to an anti-Israeli mural on a street in Tehran, Iran. Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters.

Closeted still have the doors shut

Is Trump's war winnable? Yes, he can get rid of nukes in Iran. Is the Straits war winnable? Highly unlikely and if not then the world's petrol supplies will always be held ransom to Iran's will. Have we leant a lesson from all this? No, we are still going down the dogmatic caveman and woke track believing nature will feed and keep the lights on. It won't because we have no control over the elements and how they react no matter what the zealots like Ayres and Bowen say. They can bluster and splutter and offer platitudes but it still boils down to nature and just ask any farmer about nature's reliability and you will get the same answer. Just look at any history book and see the repetition of droughts, floods and bushfires. Have a look around — we are in drought again — it was only six years ago we in Murrurundi were handling hay runs and supply food and water to farmers and towns folk. Now we are facing economic stagflation as well. No, we have not learnt.


 SPORT:

New broom for Yank cricket

Victorian sensation Ollie Peake has secured his first overseas T20 franchise deal, signing with the San Francisco Unicorns ahead of the 2026 Major League Cricket season.

Peake, 19, (left) has shone in white-ball cricket with the Melbourne Renegades and for Australia at two U19 World Cups, highlighted by two centuries in the most recent tournament earlier this year. [click to read more]

Dan Batten in the Oz reports: Through my time with the Victoria set-up, I'm well aware of the MLC’s growth and the Unicorns' ambitions, Peake told the club website.

They've built a consistently strong roster with aggressive openers, classy middle-order batting, and world-class bowling attacks. I'm excited to be a part of a successful tournament this summer, as we aim to land our first championship at the Oakland Coliseum.

The Geelong young gun joins his Renegades coach Cameron White at the Unicorns, with White named as their new coach in January.

Having seen Peake’s talents first-hand, White believes he can help them win the title.

Bringing in a player of Ollie’s potential to the Unicorns is a huge boost to our Championship hopes for this season, White said.

His form and experience as Australia’s age-grade captain and in the last BBL show he has what it takes in terms of building an innings and boundary-hitting prowess. I look forward to working with him in the coming months.

The Unicorns have had a partnership with Cricket Victoria since the opening season in 2023.

Peake will play alongside Australian internationals Matt Short (captain), Aaron Hardie, Cooper Connolly and Xavier Bartlett and joins Indian great Ravi Ashwin as a new signing.

Former Geelong Cricket Club quick Brody Couch is also part of the Unicorns squad.


 STOCKMARKET:

Iran is still the wildcard

U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday, with early gains evaporating as renewed concerns about the Middle East war outweighed initial optimism over a round of solid corporate earnings, Reuters updated on today's website. [click to continue reading]

Iran could attend talks with the United States in Pakistan if Washington abandons its policy of pressure and threats, a senior Iranian official told Reuters, adding that Tehran rejects negotiations aimed at surrender.

Equities extended declines late in the session after reports that U.S. Vice President JD Vance had called off his trip to Pakistan for peace talks.

Stocks have rallied in recent weeks on the belief that a peace deal could be on the horizon.

There’s two things going on — what is the resolution going to be or the path going to be for Iran, but in the meantime if that wasn't there, you've got really good expectations for earnings coming in and the companies are pretty much reporting that way and the economy is doing fine, said Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT Investments in Atlanta.

The wild card is indeed what happens with Iran, and nobody knows, and it’s baffling to me to think that people think that it’s going to be OK.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 293.18 points, or 0.59%, to 49,149.38, the S&P 500 lost 45.13 points, or 0.63%, to 7,064.01 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 144.43 points, or 0.59%, to 24,259.96.

The benchmark S&P index had earlier been up as much as 0.4% on the day.

Earlier economic data from the Commerce Department showed U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in March as the war with Iran boosted gasoline prices and led to a record surge in receipts at service stations.

Retail sales jumped 1.7% last month, the largest rise since March 2025, after an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in February and above the 1.4% estimate of economists polled by Reuters.

Optimism around AI and upbeat earnings have cheered investors, with first-quarter growth expectations of around 14%, according to LSEG data.

J.P. Morgan raised its year-end target for the S&P 500, citing AI and tech-driven earnings, while Amazon said on Monday it will invest up to $25 billion in Anthropic, signaling megacap companies are still willing to spend massively on the AI technology. Amazon shares closed up 0.66%.

The S&P 500 energy index rose 1.31% as the sole advancer among the major S&P sectors due to another jump in crude prices on Middle East tensions.

UnitedHealth jumped 7% after the healthcare conglomerate raised its annual profit forecast and beat Wall Street expectations for the first quarter, and was the biggest boost to the Dow, contributing roughly 138 points to the upside.

Apple shares also garnered attention, losing 2.52% after the company said CEO Tim Cook would hand over the reins to longtime hardware boss John Ternus.

Investors were also digesting comments from Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, whose confirmation hearing wrapped up in the Senate on Tuesday.

Warsh said he had made no promises to President Donald Trump about cutting interest rates, as he tried to assure U.S. senators mulling his confirmation to lead the U.S. central bank that he would act independently of the White House while pursuing broad reforms.

Republican Senator Thom Tillis has promised to block Warsh’s confirmation until the Department of Justice ends an investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell that Tillis says threatens the central bank’s independence.

The impasse could affect monetary policy, especially as Trump has vowed to fire Powell if he does not leave when his term ends in May.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 2.67-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 2.53-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted 50 new 52-week highs and four new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 144 new highs and 62 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 18.08 billion shares, compared with the 18.4 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.


 NEWS:

🎪 Iranian
dictatorship
can't stop the
wind blowing!!!!!!

The $15bln National Reconstruction Fund can be unleashed to invest in Australia’s petrol and diesel capacity after the Albanese government amended its investment mandate, as Jim Chalmers prepares to unveil fuel security measures in next month’s budget, reports The Australian today's website. [click to read more]

The Iran war has prompted the government to add an eighth -priority area for investment from the NRF, with fuel manufacturing for the first time eligible for support from the off-budget fund aimed at increasing Australia’s -industrial base.

Fuel security was added to the mandate of the NRF ahead of launching the $1bln Economic Resilience Program, which went live this week to help companies suffering with the impacts of the Middle East war.

Government sources said the new investment rules would apply to the broader NRF, although the $5bln Net Zero Fund can only invest in low carbon fuels. The NRF website on Tuesday described the fund has having only seven priority areas, with a source saying this would be updated.

Tthe NRF would examine proposals to expand Australia’s fuel-making capacity, Industry Minister Tim Ayres said, which Labor sources suggest could be done through investments in expanding existing refineries or storage capacity.

While the NRF was previously unable to invest in fuel —production, Senator Ayres said the government had sharpened its focus and there was nothing stopping the fund investing in increasing Australia’s production of diesel.

The Left faction heavyweight and key ally of Anthony Albanese said diesel would continue to be crucial to Australian industry and logistics despite the government’s long-term objective to electrify the nation.

When there’s proposals for those kind of investments, the funds will be examining them, Senator Ayres told The Australian.

There’s no prohibition on getting engaged in fuel security measures. In fact, we've sharpened the focus of the fund on precisely those kind of measures: making sure that where there’s opportunities to strengthen our supply chains, the fund can step in.

We'll see more investment in electric vehicles, we'll see more investment in battery operated logistics. But right now, diesel is crucial.

When asked if the NRF could be used to expand the diesel production capacity at Australia’s two existing refineries, Senator Ayres said: I'll leave those commercial discussions to the NRF.

A spokesman for the NRF would not comment on which companies we are engaged in discussions with, although sources played down any imminent deal with refinery owners Viva Energy or Ampol.

The Prime Minister raised the need to address fuel security in his speech to the National Press Club in Canberra earlier this month, leaving the door open to using taxpayer funds to increase Australia’s fuel storage and refining capacity.

Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen over the past fortnight has said the government will consider increasing the required fuel holdings under the national reserve stockpile, while the Treasurer has flagged fuel security as a focus of the budget.

The Australian reported on Tuesday that the $1bln Economic Resilience Program had been reproposed from a zero-interest finance package announced during the election campaign to assist exporters in finding new markets in the wake of Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs.

The NRF is also shifting from its initial purpose of generating gains across its portfolio with a target rate of return between 2-3% above the five-year government bond rate.

The zero-interest loans for the $1bln Economic Resilience Program and the $5bln Net Zero Fund have a benchmark rate of return below the five-year bond rate.

The NRF and the broader Future Made in Australia agenda has previously come under criticism for its focus on the green energy transition rather than supply chain resilience and national security.

Rejecting this criticism, Senator Ayres said the rollout of renewables would be key to increasing Australia’s industrial capacity and economic resilience. Our future energy advantage is in low-cost electricity, which is Australian wind and Australian solar backed up by storage and gas, he said.

“That is the future competitive advantage for heavy industry, right though to advanced manufacturing.

Markets are changing, industrial processes and technology are changing. Australia can't hit reverse and go back to a more expensive, uncompetitive industrial capability.

He said companies such as Rio Tinto were not virtue-signalling hippies and wanted to invest in renewable generation because it was the lowest cost option for them.

In resilience terms, an Iranian dictatorship can't stop the wind blowing in Australia, Senator Ayres said.

A Vladimir Putin can't, through some maritime blockade, stop Australian sun powering Australian solar facilities, providing cheap electricity to Australian industry.

This is clearly, in cost terms and resilience terms, Australia’s advantage and we should press it home.

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 LOCAL CHATTER:

A special display organised and in the foyer of the Murrurundi council chambers by librarian Rebecca Bowman. The soldier figurines were very patiently painted by local George Harper for the occasion. This long weekend are the markets, Anzac Day on Saturday and the markets on Sunday while Monday is a rest day some of us will need. The sheep dog trials start on Friday and run through to the finals on Sunday.
♦♦♦♦
Just a reminder, double demerits for the Anzac Day long weekend begin on Friday and continue until Monday night. Road users caught speeding, using a mobile phone illegally, riding without a helmet, not wearing or incorrectly wearing a seatbelt or carrying passengers not wearing or incorrectly wearing a seatbelt or restraint — face double the loss of points, not double the fine. NSW Police Traffic and Highway Patrol Command reminds drivers, especially parents and carers, that on the opening day of the Anzac enforcement Friday, 24 April, school zones will be in operation.
♦♦♦♦

 NEWS:

👀 The army
really
stinks

A decorated Vietnam veteran has used his Medal of Gallantry ceremony to defend accused war criminal Ben Roberts-Smith, saying the case against him "really bloody stinks", the Daily Telegraph newspaper today. [click to read more]

Mermaid Beach resident Garry John Chad was awarded the Medal of Gallantry from Governor Jeannette Young for his actions on July 29, 1971, while under fire from Vietnamese forces in Long Khanh Province.

The now-retired 84-year-old sergeant used his speech to pay tribute to Mr Roberts-Smith, who is living on the Gold Coast while facing charges of war crimes for his alleged actions in Afghanistan in 2011.

Mr Chad closed his speech saying God bless Ben Robert-Smith and said he believed the treatment of the Victoria Cross recipient stank".

When we spend (millions) to go out there and get evidence from the enemy about Ben Roberts-Smith with statutory declarations, to me that stinks, he said.

It really bloody stinks.

When they do that to a bloke like that, they simply don't like him.

He'll always be up there in my book.

Roberts-Smith was bailed last week following his arrest earlier in April and drove to the Gold Coast where he now lives under strict bail conditions.

He maintains his innocence.

Mr Chad received his medal in a ceremony held at Currumbin RSL which was attended by around 50 people, including his brothers-in-arms who he served with in 4th Battalion, Royal Australian Regiment, during the Vietnam War.

According to his gazette notice, Mr Chad received the award for his actions against Vietnamese forces on July 29, 1971.

While towards the rear of 7 Platoon, C Company, 4 RAR, a heavily defended bunker system by a numerically superior enemy force was encountered. Sergeant Chad advanced to take control of the forward elements which were being pinned down by heavy enemy fire, it reads.

He was wounded after engaging the enemy with rifle white phosphorus grenades which eliminated their command group, machine gun group and rocket propelled grenade capacity.

Despite his wound, Sergeant Chad continued to direct his fire with an accuracy and lethality that enabled the forward elements of his platoon to withdraw with only light casualties; he was the last of the platoon to retreat.

The Gazette said his aggressiveness, boldness and professional skills undoubtedly saved many lives and regained the initiative".
Ed: Mind you the system has taken 51 years to recognise his galantry!





🌌 Web searching
just got
a bit easier???

Aussies woke to a major shift in how they access the internet. Decades of searching just became near-obsolete in one quiet update writes the news.com.au website today. [click to read more]

Google Chrome ∼ by far the largest and most popular of those browsers ∼ yesterday ushering in what it called the new era of browsing by integrating its Gemini AI across platforms like Google Search, Drive, YouTube, Calendar and Maps (to name a few) in Australia and Asia-Pacific.

Instead of opening a new tab like with other AIs and needing to feed it all the relevant information, users will now be able to click on a simple sparkle star in the top right hand corner in order to open a side panel and chat with Google’s AI assistant, Gemini 3.1.

It signals a shift in accessing information systems. For decades, the internet has been governed by an unwritten rule: to get the right answer, you need to use the right search terms.

We've all agonised over the perfect keyword combination, or laughed at internet memes of Boomers treating Google like a crystal ball by typing out long, conversational questions (think Dear Mr Google, is my grandson still dating that nice girl from university?).

Ironically, those older internet users may just have been ahead of their time.

I've been a Google employee for nearly 21 years, Charmaine D’silva, director of product management at Google Chrome and lead behind the integration told news.com.au.

I remember when creating the right search query and the perfect prompt was an actual art form. It was really fascinating to see how everyone would try to optimise their queries to find the perfect search prompt.

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🎪 Libs and Nats
preference
the redheads

Liberals and Nationals to preference One Nation in blow to Michelle Milthorpe in Farrer byelection. Independent candidate and One Nation’s David Farley are viewed as the frontrunners in the four cornered-contest for the May 9 poll reports the The Guardian website. [click to read more].

Milthorpe and One Nation’s David Farley are viewed as the frontrunners in the four cornered-contest, meaning the flow of preferences from the Liberals and Nationals could be crucial in deciding the final outcome in the southern New South Wales seat.

Despite launching a blitz of negative ads targeting One Nation, the two Coalition parties will instruct supporters to number Farley ahead of Milthorpe in their respective how-to-vote cards.

The Liberals will preference the Nationals' Brad Robertson second, ahead of Farley in fourth position and Milthorpe in ninth, according to a mock how-to-vote card published on candidate Raissa Butkowski’s campaign website.

The Greens' Richard Hendrie is numbered 12 and last on the Liberals' ticket.

The Nationals will return the favour to the Liberals before encouraging supporters to number Farley ahead of Milthorpe.

In a post to Facebook, the Nationals leader, Matt Canavan, said the party would preference One Nation ahead of the teal-backed candidate because she is backed by people that support net zero and water buybacks".

Milthorpe’s campaign is supported by the Climate 200 fundraising vehicle but she has sought to distance herself from the city-based teal independent movement.

The Farrer byelection was triggered by the retirement of long-serving MP Sussan Ley, who quit the parliament after losing the Liberal party leadership to Angus Taylor in February.

After an historic result at last month’s South Australian state election, the Farrer contest is the federal electoral test for Pauline Hanson since One Nation’s started rising in the polls in the middle of last year.

The Coalition has intensified the political attacks on One Nation in the past fortnight, including drawing attention to the decision to re-hire convicted rapist Sean Black as a campaign manager.

Hanson said she sacked Black following the Coalition’s renewed scrutiny of his appointment, which she described as gutter politics".

Milthorpe is re-contesting Farrer after cutting Ley’s margin to 6.2% at the 2025 election.

Speaking to Guardian Australia before the Liberal how-to-vote card was released, Milthorpe questioned the logic of preferencing One Nation ahead of her.

I find it fascinating that the Liberal party would choose to preference a party that seemingly wants to take them out, Milthorpe said. If that’s what they think they need to do, they've got to think about what that means for their future.

Support for One Nation has fallen slightly according to the latest Newspoll and Resolve poll, prompting speculation the right-wing party’s rise might have peaked. [click the intro to return to front page]




 COMMENT:

Murrurundi Times news site with items covering national news and Upper Hunter region including the township of Murrurundi
Chris Bowen has claimed oil drilling decisions should be based on economics and engineering, despite his government creating barriers that Vikki Campion says make new projects impossible writes Vikki Campion in Daily Telegraph yesterday. [click to read more]

Drilling for oil in Australian territory is the equivalent of dropping every last dollar into the dusty arcade claw machine while the entire Labor cabinet cheers go for it!, knowing the whole game is rigged.

When Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen this week said that decisions about whether to drill should be based on the economics and the engineering and if it meets the environmental approvals, then it can happen and should happen, it was as if he had had nothing to do with the economics or the environmental approvals.

Look at the first budget of the Albanese government, which cancelled a swag of grants announced for diesel storage and petroleum drilling and instead decided to fund the Environmental Defenders Office, which then took Beetaloo drilling projects approved by former Resources Minister Keith Pitt to the NT Supreme Court.

A new anti drilling bureaucracy

Last year, they brought in reforms so that businesses need to deliver a net gain for biodiversity, a new bureaucracy in a federal Environmental Protection Agency with the power to issue stop-work orders, and forced abatement of carbon emissions under the guise of a carbon tax masquerading as the Safeguard Mechanism.

Bowen and the rest of the Albanese government, who went on to spend the next four years talking about reducing emissions, know the system has been gamed so much, with everything stacked against any new proponent, only a fool would try.

Bowen blames engineering as the issue. Any drilling must pass those economics and engineering tests, he says. But it wasn't too hard for them to drill in the 1970s in the Bass Strait, one of the world’s most dangerous stretches of water, home to the roaring forties and shipwrecks galore, and its oil production softened Australia’s exposure to the last global petroleum crisis.

Just too difficult in Oz

But, now in 2026, Mr Bowen wants us to believe that drilling is just too difficult in Australia.

Australia’s oceans are apparently scarier than they were 50 years ago. More terrifying than Russian icy seas or the deep swell off the Gulf of Mexico, where some of the deepest oil rigs produce millions of barrels of oil.

In the 1970s, we produced 70% of our own petroleum from local oil and refineries.

Now we rely on imports and there’s no guarantee we'll have fuel past mid-May.

The government measures fuel security by counting empty service stations, even though these aren't the main suppliers for big buyers like farmers or miners.

Zelots making sure we don't drill

It has everything to do with the government, which forced existing wells to be capped, who armed those who oppose petroleum on ideological grounds with taxpayer-funded court cases and who provide minimal transparency in relation to activist groups masquerading as charities.

Zealots staff environmental departments, industry super funds are forced to buy politically correct investments, and geologists find themselves busier with paperwork than getting dirty, forced to deal with both state and federal departments to handle what is a state resource.

Australia’s oil is both attainable and comparable to the best reserves in the world. The biggest impediment is not sub-arctic temperatures or deep oceans, but the government itself. No investor is going to sink billions into the Albanese claw machine for drilling, knowing that they will never win.

One-eyed passion

Bowen insists projects need to stack up environmentally, while disregarding foreign companies dynamiting pristine forests for wind turbines or NSW’s EnergyCo, in its one-eyed passion for building transmission towers spanning thousands of kilometres, no matter how much biodiversity goes under the bulldozer.

The game works for them — they get the prize. If we eased environmental approvals, as we do for transmission lines, sped up payments and granted landowners underground rights, we could produce Australian oil within six months.

Mr Bowen says any development needs to stack up economically but one must ask the question: with crude oil prices surging toward $144 a barrel and domestic fuel security evaporating, how exactly does refusing to develop our own resources make good economic sense?

The game was never meant to be won. It has been rigged to ensure the only people walking away with any plush toy from behind the glass are the ones Mr Bowen has already decided should win.

We have skills, technology and the guts to claim the prize for oil. The only thing we don't have is a government that’s prepared to let us play a fair game.

It’s easier to see the bite in the small towns, on the quieter streets, because when the shop shuts, it doesn't reopen; darkened windows sit as an empty reminder of what used to bring people together between the post office and the IGA.

Another day older and deeper in debt!

Over the coffee machine in one cafe, the owner confides that he thinks his business is done because he can't sell enough lattes and eggs to pay the four-figure power bill; even with the crowd out front, and the line at the till, with good staff and good food, every month he goes deeper into debt.

You see it in statistics from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission which show that 14,722 businesses entered insolvency in the 2025 financial year.

Statistics from the Australian Energy Regulator released this week show that more than 6200 electricity customers were disconnected in the last quarter, with the average account holder owing $2600 at the time of disconnection.

Thousands of businesses are going insolvent, and thousands of people are being disconnected from power.

And they tell us it's betting cheaper

Yet the same bureaucrats tell us power is getting cheaper and assure us renewables will send bills down. Just not before we go out of business.

The smart ones try to get out quickly, listening to their heads rather than their entrepreneurial hearts. They watch their plans fall apart — how they turned a shabby old house into a lively spot for coffee and tea, a place where the lonely or elderly could meet and talk, a bit of sophistication in a town where the only other choice is the pub.


Murrurundi Times news site with items covering national news and Upper Hunter region including the township of Murrurundi
Reflecting, decades ago, on the aftermath of the Napoleonic Wars, Henry Kissinger observed that order once shattered can be restored only by the experience of chaos, Henry Ergas writes in the The Australian today. [click to read more]

Today’s world, which Defence Minister Richard Marles aptly described in his National Press Club speech as defined by disorder, offers no such consolation.

There is chaos enough, but no sign of the order it is meant to produce. As the crises deepen and the prospects for order recede, prudence has a single meaning: to build the strength required to meet threats whose contours we can dimly discern but whose timing and precise nature remain inherently uncertain.

That imperative goes to the heart of Australia’s defence posture and will frame the debate about the 2026 National Defence Strategy. But a central insight, articulated by Arthur Tange, secretary of the Department of Defence from 1970 to 1979, retains all its force: Until you're talking dollars, you're not talking strategy.

Translating spendings into capability

The issue, however, is not simply how much is spent but whether that spending translates into capability. And on both counts there are grounds for concern.

Defence spending has certainly risen under Labor, though a significant share of the increase results from the AUKUS program the Coalition initiated. But the government’s decision to inflate the headline defence-to-GDP ratio by including pension and veterans' expenditures - items previously excluded - falls well short of clarity and candour.

The effect is far from trivial: the change alone lifts the ratio from just over 2% of GDP to the 2.8% Marles highlighted in his address.

No less important, once the definition is expanded in this way, the additional spending required to reach the government’s 3% target is dramatically reduced to just a further 0.2% of GDP.

No contribution to capability

The issue is not merely one of accounting. Those items were left out for good reasons: however justified they may be on other grounds, they do not directly contribute to military capability.

Including them obscures the fundamental question — whether Australia is allocating sufficient resources to build the forces our strategic circumstances demand.

As for the spending increase Marles announced - of $53bln over the next decade - it largely reflects amounts the government promised some time ago, and whose value has, since then, been significantly eroded by higher than expected inflation.

Nor is there any certainty the increases will actually eventuate.

The forward estimates, which cover the next four years, will include only a quarter of the projected uplift; that implies that the average increase in annual outlays in the subsequent six years must be roughly double that in the forthcoming budget — by which time any greater spending will be worth even less. Long experience suggests that such steeply backloaded promises are more easily made than honoured.

Not closing the freeriding gap

But even if those increases are delivered, they will still do little to narrow the gap between Australia’s defence effort and that of the US — a gap that, rightly or wrongly, fuels American concerns about free-riding.

On a standard, core-defence basis, Australian per capita spending over the forward estimates averages about $2430 a year, up only modestly from $2340. The US already spends around $4290 per person — close to twice as much.

And if the Trump administration’s 2027 defence budget is enacted, US per capita spending would exceed $5710, making the disparity starker still on even the most expansive assumptions about Australia’s own outlays.

Concerns about the efficiency of our spending are, if anything, just as pressing. Some few years ago, Mark Thomson and I surveyed the major reviews of how the Australian Defence Force acquires and maintains its weapons systems.

Regurgitating the malaise

One finding stood out: every review raised concerns remarkably similar, if not identical, to those identified by its predecessors.

As Paul Rizzo put it in his review of naval sustainment, the failures were longstanding, well known to Defence, and the subject of many prior reports.

There have, to be sure, been numerous remedial efforts. But it is difficult ∼ usually impossible ∼ to determine whether they have been effective.

Rarely have reforms been followed by systematic retrospective assessment: the kind of post-mortem that would establish whether the changes worked and, if not, why they failed.

The contrast with the US is instructive. Between 1989 and 2000, the American defence system underwent unprecedented change; in 1995 alone there were 23 major initiatives targeting defence procurement.

Shuffling the bureaucratic placemats

Recognising that the effects would take time to emerge, US policymakers commissioned a comprehensive, bottom-up appraisal in 2009. The results informed, and continue to drive, further rounds of reform.

There have, however, been no appraisals of comparable scale, rigour and transparency in Australia. Instead, having repeatedly shuffled the bureaucratic placemats without genuinely changing the menu, we stagger from acquisition mishap to capability fiasco and back again.

What makes this all the more striking is that our defence establishment has no shortage of senior personnel who might undertake analyses of that kind — indeed, it is remarkably top-heavy.

Here, too, the comparison with the US is telling. Australia has 248 star-ranked officers across a force of roughly 90,000 — one senior officer for every 363 personnel.

Four times the numbwer of officers

The US has around 848 star-ranked officers across 1.3 million active-duty troops — around one for every 1530. On that basis, Australia has roughly 4.2 times as many senior officers per service member as the US.

The contrast extends beyond structure to experience. Almost all serving US generals came up as majors and lieutenant colonels during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, most often accumulating four to six combat tours.

A significant number also commanded brigades or divisions in those theatres, gaining hard-won understanding of operational command.

By contrast, Australian general officers have typically had one or two deployments, measured in months rather than years.

Only those from the special forces approach anything like the combat exposure of their American colleagues. Despite that, Australia’s military senior officers are, by international standards, extraordinarily well paid.

World's highest paid

The Chief of the Defence Force, to take but one example, earns about $1m a year — making the position almost certainly the highest- compensated military chief in the democratic world, with nearly three times the official salary of the US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

The disparity is even more striking when set against force size: Australia’s CDF earns the equivalent of around $10,340 for every thousand uniformed members of the ADF, compared with $3600 for Canada’s Chief of Defence staff and a mere $320-$380 for the US Chairman — whose salary is spread across a force 15 times larger.

That combination - an outsized upper layer and generous individual remuneration - raises legitimate questions about whether the ADF’s command structure reflects strategic necessity or institutional inertia. And the same questions arise even more acutely about the civilian establishment.

No one could reasonably expect Defence to be a paragon of efficiency: the complexity of its tasks makes it inevitable that there will be a great deal of muddling through.

Just turning up the volume

Yet it is also clear that we could do better. And it is clear too that spending increases, such as those Marles touted, may end up being no more sensible than turning up the volume on a faulty amplifier.

There is a compelling case for greater outlays but they must be accompanied by reforms that go beyond changing administrative labels — something given only token attention in Marles’s address.

It could, of course, be that voters are happy with what they are being given: Pharaonic commitments, made to be forgotten; creative accounting, which dresses a drab reality in gilt and glitter; and a defence establishment, both uniformed and civilian, that marches to its own drum.

But that will do us little good should the evil day dawn. As the curtain of illusion is ripped away, and lives are lost that could have been saved, we may learn, too late, that what we called strength was just expensive stagecraft.



 OVERSEAS:

Sam Sifton writes in The New York Times a lot of you are feeling this war at the gas pump. I sure am. It now costs me $106 to fill my full-size pickup truck at the neighborhood station. I know the owner a little and I raised my eyebrows at him when I was done. He shrugged. It was clear drivers had been grinding him about it all day. You read abstractions about the war in Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, the unstable oil market. Then you go pump 10 gallons into your minivan and experience what that means at home. Ouch. But don't take it out on the station owner, Lydia DePillis told me. Lydia, who covers the American economy, reported on why price hikes at the filling station take so long to go away. When oil prices spike, profit margins shrink for businesses down the supply chain, she said. To recoup, they keep prices a little higher even as their costs shrink. For her story, Lydia went deep on the math those gas station owners have to do as prices spike. She introduced readers to a Massachusetts gas station owner named Alex Weatherall: He refills his tanks about every four days, and the "rack price" that his wholesale gasoline provider charges jumped to $3.347 per gallon last week from $2.398 on Feb. 25 — an increase of 39.6 percent. His last truckload cost $39,488. Weatherall raised his price by only 33.8 percent: "He would charge more, but he feared losing business if his competitors did not follow," Lydia wrote. "Fewer visits also mean lower sales at his convenience store and restaurant." Gas stations ∼ and especially independently run ones like Weatherall's ∼ rely for much of their income on the snacks and sodas and cigarettes and beer they sell inside. "If I had to solely rely on fuel as my only source of profit, I wouldn't stay in business," another owner told Lydia. "I want the consumer to come in the store, and we do everything we can to entice them to come in." Because those people who come into the store? They're often regulars. They have relationships with the staff. They experience the gas station as a community hub. That can add to the pressure when it comes to setting prices — wherever you live. My colleague Michael Barbaro, a host of "The Daily," went to suburban Jacksonville, Fla., to hear about that pressure. He and his team spent time with a gas station manager named Cameron Joudi, who has had to ratchet up the price of his gas again and again. "He wasn't repeatedly raising gas prices on strangers," Michael said. "He was raising prices on people he really cares about. People who he knows are already stretched very thin." It's hard, Joudi told Michael: "I hope they understand that I'm not pricing my gas to make a quick buck," he said. "I'm pricing my gas how I need to price it in order to stay afloat." Joudi said he makes around 10 cents to 15 cents per gallon he sells. His tank, Michael reported, holds around 8,000 gallons, which lasts a couple of weeks. That means a profit of between $800 and $1,200 — not a fortune. But a rise can still hurt Joudi's customers. "The Daily" spoke to one of them, a veteran who served in Afghanistan. Where did he get the money to cover the higher cost of his gas? From the grocery budget, he said: "We've been going to those food banks every now and then, which help out. I like those. A lot of local churches do help out, so that's pretty nice. I have three kids. So I make sure that they eat first. So usually we'll get all their food first." Usually. Sometimes he and his wife don't eat. Which is a good reminder: Pain at the pump is relative.






The Murrurundi Times is owned, compiled and written by Des Dugan. Email