Thursday 16-04-2026 4:49am

Government knows not who they are

More than 77,000 people live in Australia illegally, with some overstayers avoiding detection for over a decade, explosive government data reveals. some 25,000 unlawful non-citizens remaining in the country without visas for more than a decade. Department of Home Affairs figures, released under freedom of information requests, revealed the number of unlawful non-citizens in Australia at the end of the last financial year sat at 77,700 people. Responding to the freedom of information request, Home Affairs representatives said the estimated number of unlawful non-citizens living in the country included "anyone who has overstayed their visa, or had their visa cancelled before the reference date, and has yet to have their immigration status resolved on that date". However, national security strategist and Australian Strategic Policy Institute director John Coyne told The Daily Telegraph the government was flying blind in its response to unlawful non-migrants refusing to leave when their visa expires or is cancelled. — Daily Telegraph


 SPORT:

Stark starkly the best

Mitchell Starc has a deserved reputation as a strike bowler with a propensity to rattle top-order batters with his ferocity. But learning a trick or two from his younger teammates has been key to the champion’s longevity and success, which culminated in the veteran being named Wisden’s Leading Male Cricketer in the World for his dazzling deeds in 2025. [click to read more]

In a year where the New South Welshman became just the second Australian fast bowler to reach 100 Tests while also overtaking Wasim Akram to become the leading left-armed pace Test wicket taker, his consistency has become a virtue.

That saw him take 55 wickets at an average of 17, with a strike-rate of 28, in 11 Tests while also producing important innings including a 77 against England at the Gabba and an unbeaten 58 against South Africa in the World Test Championship Final.

The 36-year-old starts spells with the speed of Usain Bolt, but it is his improved ability to reproduce and remain effective throughout innings that has catapulted him to a position among the greats. And it stems from being open to change.

Starc led the Australian attack for extended periods in the injury-enforced absence of fellow champions Josh Hazlewood and Pat Cummins in 2025, but said learning from their use of wobble seam had proven critical to his ability to keep performing.

It helps when two of my best mates are two of the world’s best bowlers, and I think we have been benefiting from one another for a long time, Starc told Wisden in a profile celebrating the honour.

The wobble seam is something Josh and Pat have used so well over the years, and talking to them about that has added a string to the bow. It probably means I'm a bit more useful to the attack when I can now bowl in all facets, as opposed to just using swing or air speed, like in the first half of my career.

Starc, who snared 31 wickets during the Ashes, will turn 37 in the midst of a gruelling stretch of Test cricket for Australia beginning with a two Test series against Bangladesh to be played in Darwin and Mackay in August.

Australia will travel to South Africa in October for three Tests, host New Zealand in a four Test Chappell-Hadlee Tour over summer and then head to India for a five Test series from late January to early March.

The Aussies then host England in a 150th Anniversary Test special at the MCG in mid-March and will hope to feature in the World Test Championship Final for the third cycle in succession preceding the Ashes beginning in late June, 2027.

Starc aside, the Wisden awards were dominated by Indian cricketers. The ability of stars including Shubman Gill and Rishabh Pant to cash in on toothless England decks last northern summer carried weight with the bible of cricket".




 STOCKMARKET:

Market eager for positive news

The Nasdaq climbed 2% while the S&P 500 finished up 1% and near its record closing high on increasing optimism about the prospects for a Middle East resolution while investors also assessed the latest batch of bank earnings and U.S. inflation readings, Reuters updated on today's website. [click to continue reading]

Talks to end the Iran war could resume in Pakistan over the next two days, U.S. President Donald Trump told the New York Post on Tuesday, after the collapse of weekend negotiations prompted Washington to impose a blockade on Iranian ports.

Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department said Israel and Lebanon had agreed to launch direct negotiations at a mutually agreed-upon time and place after a U.S.-hosted meeting in Washington on Tuesday, although it was not immediately clear if they agreed to a framework for peace.

With volatile oil prices dramatically impacting inflation expectations, the market has been highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, with any headlines about setbacks sending stocks lower, while even tentative signs of an off-ramp have been sufficient to encourage investors eager for positive news.

We don't have a resolution yet but investors don't want to miss the rebound, said Burns McKinney, portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group, Dallas.

Meanwhile, Tuesday’s inflation data provided some encouragement as U.S. producer prices increased less than expected, opens new tab in March as the cost of services was unchanged. Ameriprise chief market strategist Anthony Saglimbene also cited a solid start to the U.S. earnings season as a boost for stocks.

The market is kind of moving past this concept of peak uncertainty. There’s been a lot of uncertainty in the market, whether that’s coming from the Iran conflict, AI disruption fears, inflation concerns or Federal Reserve policy concerns, Saglimbene said.

Markets are starting to kind of walk away from some of the worst-case scenarios for these events and because valuations have improved over the last couple of weeks and months, investors are buying the dip right now.

The S&P 500 gained 81.14 points, or 1.18%, to finish at 6,967.38 compared with its record close of 6978.60 on January 27. On Monday the benchmark index had closed above its finish on February 27 — the last trading day before the U.S. and Israel started their war against Iran.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 455.35 points, or 1.96%, to 23,639.08 for its tenth daily advance in a row. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 317.74 points, or 0.66%, to 48,535.99, marking its highest close since early March.

Only three of the S&P 500’s 11 major industry sectors lost ground with energy down 2.2%, leading declines as oil prices fell.

In technology, software stocks rallied for a second straight day to close up 1.6% while the Philadelphia Semiconductor index finished up 2% for its fifth record close in a row.

On the earnings front, BlackRock shares rallied 3% after the asset manager reported a rise in first-quarter profit, helped by strong inflows into its exchange-traded funds and a sharp increase in performance fees.

Citigroup shares closed up 2.6% after hitting their highest level since late 2008 following earnings that beat first-quarter profit estimates.

However, JPMorgan had a less enthusiastic reception to its first-quarter results, while Wells Fargo shares fell after interest income fell short of market expectations.

While the market reaction was mixed, NFJ’s McKinney said, the earnings reports and executive commentary show that the economy has been sturdy and is holding up.

In the healthcare sector, Johnson & Johnson shares rose 0.9% after it reported earnings.

Meanwhile, United Airlines shares finished up 2% while American Airlines stock rallied 8% after Reuters, citing two unnamed sources, reported that United CEO Scott Kirby had pitched a potential merger with American Airlines to Trump in late February, raising the prospect of a deal that could reshape the industry.

Shares of Globalstar jumped 9.6% after Amazon.com agreed to buy the satellite company.

On U.S. exchanges 17.96 billion shares changed hands compared with the 19.10 billion moving average for the last 20 sessions.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.62-to-1 ratio on the NYSE where there were 363 new highs and 49 new lows. On the Nasdaq, 3,345 stocks rose and 1,478 fell as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.26-to-1 ratio. The S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and one new low.
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 NEWS:

🌝 The solar
panel
comeuppance

Australia faces a glut of old solar panels polluting the environment by leaching toxic chemicals into landfill with no viable reuse or recycling solutions available, the government’s own Department of Climate Change and Energy has warned, reports The Australian today's website. [click to read more]

The looming environmental crisis has sparked alarm among local councils and regional communities, which have accused the Albanese government of putting money into the rollout of renewable energy but not the decommissioning end of the process.

Australia, the world’s largest per capita adopter of solar power thanks in large part to Labor government subsidies, now faces its first significant wave of end-of-life rooftop solar systems but can't process all the hazardous waste that would come from this, the department said.

A small percentage of solar panels thrown away today are recycled but a significant share likely will end up in landfill without a ban against the practice being instigated across the country.

The remainder is assumed to be stockpiled, illegally dumped or exported, the department said in a submission to a parliamentary inquiry into the matter.

The problem is instead being borne by lower levels of government and more and more panels and other related materials are going to landfill, the Council of Capital City Lord Mayors said.

Regional Development Australia Mid North Coast ∼ one of the development forums the federal government put together ∼ has lashed the federal approach.

Funding the front end of the transition without funding the back end is an incomplete policy, it said in a submission.

On Norfolk Island, the options for disposing of solar panels were to hold onto the unused solar panels to throw out later, throw them into the local landfill, or send them back to the mainland.

None of these is acceptable as a long-term solution … solar panels contain lead solder, cadmium (in some technologies), and other substances … landfill of hazardous waste on a small island with a finite, unlined landfill poses unacceptable risks to groundwater and the surrounding marine park, the RDAMNC said in its submission.

But the DCCE said both reuse and recycling appeared to be un-attractive options.

On reuse, there was a lack of financial incentive, it said. New systems outperform reused systems under most circumstances. Although second-hand panel costs are lower, other costs ∼ such as transport, mounting, testing and installation and maintenance, as well as the reduced efficiency of second-hand panels ∼ results in higher total private costs of about $4500 a year for a large system of 101kW or more, the department said.

On recycling, it said it was not generally economically viable.

Research commissioned by the department indicates nationwide recycling costs could vary significantly, from $266,000 to $1.16m per tonne of waste, depending on the type and efficiency of the recycling method, the department said.

This suggests that the high costs of large-scale, high-efficiency solar recycling, combined with significant transport and logistics costs, is not generally economically viable solely for the material recovery benefits.

Adding to the issue, it said export demand was shrinking because of technological advancements, while solar panel owners were seeking to dispose of the panels before they wore out because of technological advances prompting them to buy upgrades.

The NSW government said in its submission the federal government’s home battery subsidy scheme had accelerated the issue.

Over 18 per cent of 2025 solar panel installations were considered replacements of an existing system, increasing from 9 per cent in 2020, it wrote.

Opposition energy spokesman Dan Tehan said this was proof that solar panels are not renewable and that the issue of solar panel disposal threatened to become a huge problem for Australia into the future.

All these panels are made overseas using materials which will not recycle, Mr Tehan said.

So the government has to front up and tell Australians what they're going to do with the huge waste that we're going to be left with from these overseas-produced and manufactured solar panels. l [click the intro to return to front page]




 LOCAL CHATTER:

Hazardous reduction burns by the Rural Fire Service makes for a greying of the green, green hills of Murrurundi this morning. The reduction burns are also accommodated by a recent fire at Wingen.
♦♦♦♦
Scone and Muswellbrook racecourses now have new facilities funded from the former NSW Nationals and Liberals Government's Racing for the Regions program reports Dave Layzell in his PR newsletter. A state-of-the-art, all-weather synthetic training track, new stables and infrastructure are part of the $20m state government investment at Scone racecourse. The Muswellbrook racecourse grandstand has undergone $4.2 million upgrade to provide improved viewing, an expanded multi-purpose function centre, enhanced male and female jockeys' facilities and improved steward facilities. A further $11.5m is being spent at Cessnock racecourse for the transformation into a premier dedicated pre-training facility with a new sand-based training track, stables and associated infrastructure.
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Steam locomotive 3265 departs Maitland for five return trips to Branxton on Saturday and four return journeys on Sunday, with steam loco 3526 making three return trips to Paterson on Saturday and a further two runs on Sunday. Paterson's Rail Motor Society will have the 1920s era rail motors CPH 1, 3 and 7 carry passengers between Maitland and Paterson on both days. The Society's 1960s 'Red Rattler' 621/721 heads to Kooragang Island both days using the Walsh Point loop for a unique look at the world's largest coal port. Check: steamfest.com.au

 NEWS:

🚚 Electric
trucks
unfeasable

Three-quarters of Australia’s trucking operators face closure within six months as the industry slams government plans to electrify freight networks amid a devastating fuel crisis writes the Daily Telegraph newspaper today. [click to read more]

Mr Singleton issued a stinging rebuke of the every little bit helps campaign, which encourages Australians to consider using their cars less, imploring authorities to change their focus.

Australia’s trucking industry is on its knees, with three-quarters of operators facing wipe-out within six months as the industry and experts slam politicians over their talk of electrifying the sector.

Premier Chris Minns yesterday announced an incentive program to encourage operators to upgrade diesel trucks to electric vehicles, but industry and fuel experts said electrifying the nation’s freight network was unfeasible.

It comes as a damning survey from the National Road Transport Association (NatRoad) found 70% of trucking companies believe they will need to close unless the fuel crisis is resolved.

Operators with 20 trucks or fewer reported reductions in work between 10 and 50%, while more than a quarter revealed they had already stood down staff.

The survey results follow federal Infrastructure Minister Catherine King saying on Sunday the world has moved on from requiring fossil fuels for energy security, while Energy Minister Chris Bowen has said no other countries are dealing with the fuel crisis by wanting to expand their fossil fuel reserves.

Aidan Morrison, the director of energy research at the Centre for Independent Studies, said Mr Bowen was completely wrong

Everyone around the world is still looking at trying to secure and increase their production of fossil fuels, Mr Morrison said.

Retired Air Vice-Marshall John Blackburn, who warned in a 2013 report that Australia’s small fuel reserves were a significant risk to national security, said electrification would take decades.

It will take decades and is just a part of the solution, he told The Daily Telegraph.

Beware of simple solutions proposed by ‘simple’ politicians.

The NatRoad survey also found that small operators with fewer than 10 trucks faced immediate risk of closure.

Electric trucks were not commercially viable in -Australia, NatRoad acting chief executive Sarah Dunning said.

Right now there aren't charging stations for trucks between Melbourne and Sydney, she said. So how’s it going to work?

NSW Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane yesterday ignited a political fight over fuel, vowing to pump the gas on boosting storage and domestic production".

Ms Sloane promised a fuel resilience strategy if elected in March, which would explore expanding storage capacity, investigate opportunities for domestic production, and also audit storage and supply chain vulnerabilities.

Ms Sloane said the strategy would look at prioritising fuel for farmers who won't benefit from electrification in the near term.

This isn't just about getting from A to B, it’s also about ensuring regional communities can function because their success is critical to the rest of NSW, she said.

The Liberal leader added that electrification risked leaving regional NSW behind.

Farmers shake their heads with frustration when they hear about transitioning to EVs (electric vehicles) in areas where it’s not easy to plug in and is not workable in the short term, Ms Sloane said.

Mr Minns yesterday announced he would spend $45m to build hundreds of new charging stations across NSW suburbs, unveiling a revamped EV strategy worth $100m.

Alongside NSW Energy Minister Penny Sharpe, Mr Minns also unveiled a plan to encourage trucking companies to go electric.

We think that will be taken up in big measure, he said.

He said electrification of the transport network was a shorter, better bet to reduce the state’s dependence on foreign oil, rather than drilling for our own. We don't have in NSW access to the natural fuels that are being explored in Queensland, he said.

It’s years into the future in terms of identifying those sites, exploiting that resource, getting it to the surface, then getting it to shore and refining it for domestic use.

The Premier pointed to the increase in the number of EVs on the road and the recent electrification of the Woolworths delivery fleet, saying complete electrification was achievable".

This is not a hypothetical utopia anymore. This is achievable, he insisted.

Mr Minns said the push to electrification came on top of short-term assistance for truck companies, like allowing bigger trucks to use more roads across NSW. We can deal with today’s fuel pressures and plan for the future at the same time, he said.

Truck driver Avi Smith warned a push to electrify freight fleets would only push up costs. If Catherine (King) is happy to wait longer for deliveries and pay more for groceries during the transition, then sure, we can go electric, but that’s the reality she’s not realising, he said.

Owner-driver Collin Burstow, who transports clothing across Sydney, has copped a $200 increase in fuel costs for every tank. He said electric trucks would be unfeasible.

It’s just not practical, he said. It doesn't work for how we operate.





💚 Green
lawn freak
reveals all

A self-described lawn addict who was recently crowned the owner of Australia’s best lawn, has made a surprising confession: his award-winning yard relies on a simple $20 hack reveals the news.com.au website today. [click to read more]

Perth-based father of three Phil Gregory, known online as % Australian Lawn Addict", recently clinched the inaugural title of Australia’s best lawn by Yates National Gardening League.

He was judged to have a near flawless yard of turf, judged by the colour, edges, uniformity, weed-free finish and a range of other metrics.

The award was the culmination of what has become a lifetime obsession for Mr Gregory, 52, who revealed he takes his lawn very seriously and considers it his main hobby.

Mr Gregory, a salesman for a food company, said he owns 10 lawnmowers and numerous other pieces of lawn care equipment acquired since developing his passion as a teenager.

The proud grandfather attributed his lawn addiction to a love of watching other people’s reactions to his yard.

People don't think it’s real, that it must be artificial, he said. It’s a great compliment.

Even with all specialised equipment and knowledge, he said the foundation of his immaculate, award-winning yard came down a $20 lifter lawn food product.

It’s nothing niche or fancy - you could get at just about any Bunnings or garden store, he said.

The Yates Click and Grow product, which attaches straight to a garden hose, is the cornerstone of Mr Gregory’s strategy to aggressively build up the soil.

In Perth, where the earth is notoriously sandy and prone to losing moisture, this lifter helps build a nutrient-rich foundation that encourages microbes and dramatically improves water retention.

Soil is key to it all, Mr Gregory said, noting that a common mistake people make is overwatering and fertilising the top of the leaves instead of focusing on the soil’s health.

Thanks to his meticulously built soil, he actually waters his grass less than the dead lawns down his street, easily thriving within WA’s strict twice-a-week watering limits.

His routine is relentless: during the peak growing season, he mows his couch grass every single day, keeping it incredibly tight.

By cutting it as low as 5mm, he forces the lawn to become so dense that weeds simply cannot penetrate it. [click the intro to return to front page]





🌀 Orange
hit with
earthquake

Thousands rattled by 4.5-magnitude earthquake in central west NSW Geoscience Australia says aftershocks likely but much lighter and in a smaller area reports the The Guardian website. [click to read more].

A 4.5-magnitude quake hit at 8.19pm on Tuesday at a depth of 5km about 30km south-west of Orange in central west NSW, near the Cadia goldmine.

Geoscience Australia received more than 2,000 reports of tremors in the region, which a senior seismologist said were weak to light and felt as far as hundreds of kilometres south-east in Batemans Bay.

It was a large earthquake for this area", Phil Cummins said

The last of a similar size was a 4.3 magnitude in 2017.

Cummins expected aftershocks but they would likely be much lighter and felt in a smaller area. [click the intro to return to front page]




 COMMENT:

Murrurundi Times news site with items covering national news and Upper Hunter region including the township of Murrurundi
Chris Bowen has claimed oil drilling decisions should be based on economics and engineering, despite his government creating barriers that Vikki Campion says make new projects impossible writes Vikki Campion in Daily Telegraph yesterday. [click to read more]

Drilling for oil in Australian territory is the equivalent of dropping every last dollar into the dusty arcade claw machine while the entire Labor cabinet cheers go for it!, knowing the whole game is rigged.

When Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen this week said that decisions about whether to drill should be based on the economics and the engineering and if it meets the environmental approvals, then it can happen and should happen, it was as if he had had nothing to do with the economics or the environmental approvals.

Look at the first budget of the Albanese government, which cancelled a swag of grants announced for diesel storage and petroleum drilling and instead decided to fund the Environmental Defenders Office, which then took Beetaloo drilling projects approved by former Resources Minister Keith Pitt to the NT Supreme Court.

A new anti drilling bureaucracy

Last year, they brought in reforms so that businesses need to deliver a net gain for biodiversity, a new bureaucracy in a federal Environmental Protection Agency with the power to issue stop-work orders, and forced abatement of carbon emissions under the guise of a carbon tax masquerading as the Safeguard Mechanism.

Bowen and the rest of the Albanese government, who went on to spend the next four years talking about reducing emissions, know the system has been gamed so much, with everything stacked against any new proponent, only a fool would try.

Bowen blames engineering as the issue. Any drilling must pass those economics and engineering tests, he says. But it wasn't too hard for them to drill in the 1970s in the Bass Strait, one of the world’s most dangerous stretches of water, home to the roaring forties and shipwrecks galore, and its oil production softened Australia’s exposure to the last global petroleum crisis.

Just too difficult in Oz

But, now in 2026, Mr Bowen wants us to believe that drilling is just too difficult in Australia.

Australia’s oceans are apparently scarier than they were 50 years ago. More terrifying than Russian icy seas or the deep swell off the Gulf of Mexico, where some of the deepest oil rigs produce millions of barrels of oil.

In the 1970s, we produced 70% of our own petroleum from local oil and refineries.

Now we rely on imports and there’s no guarantee we'll have fuel past mid-May.

The government measures fuel security by counting empty service stations, even though these aren't the main suppliers for big buyers like farmers or miners.

Zelots making sure we don't drill

It has everything to do with the government, which forced existing wells to be capped, who armed those who oppose petroleum on ideological grounds with taxpayer-funded court cases and who provide minimal transparency in relation to activist groups masquerading as charities.

Zealots staff environmental departments, industry super funds are forced to buy politically correct investments, and geologists find themselves busier with paperwork than getting dirty, forced to deal with both state and federal departments to handle what is a state resource.

Australia’s oil is both attainable and comparable to the best reserves in the world. The biggest impediment is not sub-arctic temperatures or deep oceans, but the government itself. No investor is going to sink billions into the Albanese claw machine for drilling, knowing that they will never win.

One-eyed passion

Bowen insists projects need to stack up environmentally, while disregarding foreign companies dynamiting pristine forests for wind turbines or NSW’s EnergyCo, in its one-eyed passion for building transmission towers spanning thousands of kilometres, no matter how much biodiversity goes under the bulldozer.

The game works for them — they get the prize. If we eased environmental approvals, as we do for transmission lines, sped up payments and granted landowners underground rights, we could produce Australian oil within six months.

Mr Bowen says any development needs to stack up economically but one must ask the question: with crude oil prices surging toward $144 a barrel and domestic fuel security evaporating, how exactly does refusing to develop our own resources make good economic sense?

The game was never meant to be won. It has been rigged to ensure the only people walking away with any plush toy from behind the glass are the ones Mr Bowen has already decided should win.

We have skills, technology and the guts to claim the prize for oil. The only thing we don't have is a government that’s prepared to let us play a fair game.

It’s easier to see the bite in the small towns, on the quieter streets, because when the shop shuts, it doesn't reopen; darkened windows sit as an empty reminder of what used to bring people together between the post office and the IGA.

Another day older and deeper in debt!

Over the coffee machine in one cafe, the owner confides that he thinks his business is done because he can't sell enough lattes and eggs to pay the four-figure power bill; even with the crowd out front, and the line at the till, with good staff and good food, every month he goes deeper into debt.

You see it in statistics from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission which show that 14,722 businesses entered insolvency in the 2025 financial year.

Statistics from the Australian Energy Regulator released this week show that more than 6200 electricity customers were disconnected in the last quarter, with the average account holder owing $2600 at the time of disconnection.

Thousands of businesses are going insolvent, and thousands of people are being disconnected from power.

And they tell us it's betting cheaper

Yet the same bureaucrats tell us power is getting cheaper and assure us renewables will send bills down. Just not before we go out of business.

The smart ones try to get out quickly, listening to their heads rather than their entrepreneurial hearts. They watch their plans fall apart — how they turned a shabby old house into a lively spot for coffee and tea, a place where the lonely or elderly could meet and talk, a bit of sophistication in a town where the only other choice is the pub.


Murrurundi Times news site with items covering national news and Upper Hunter region including the township of Murrurundi
It may seem eccentric ∼ if not positively blasphemous ∼ to suggest that Donald Trump is a child of the Enlightenment. Voltaire, Hume and Kant would scarcely have recognised him as their progeny; they might have winced, incredulous at history’s cruel irony, Henry Ergas writes in the The Australian today. [click to read more]

Yet the family resemblance is real. For it was the long 18th century’s great philosophers who advanced one of modernity’s most consequential wagers: that interests would subdue passions. If human beings could be induced to pursue their interests rather than defend dogmas and chase glory, conflict itself might be domesticated — shifted from the battlefield to the bargaining table.

This was, in other words, the intellectual origin of the art of the deal: the belief that, in the end, every actor has a price, and that rational self-interest will draw antagonists toward compromise. Strangely, the 19th and 20th centuries ∼ whose wars grew ever more destructive ∼ did not abandon that conviction but entrenched it, even as the evidence mounted that it obscured more than it revealed.

The intellectual genealogy, too complex to detail here, runs from the early modern rehabilitation of self-interest to Mar-a-Lago on the Gaza shore — but the crucial moment lies in Duc Henri de Rohan’s 1638 distinction between passion, grounded in impulse, and interest, grounded in calculation. His maxim, rendered in English as interest will not lie, eventually became, in JA Gunn’s phrase, the most fashionable political concept in the 17th century.

Passion, irrationality and barbarism

Interests, Rohan maintained, were stable, reasonable and predictable. Passions, by contrast, connoted volatility, irrationality and barbarism. The genius of the moderns was to transform conflicts over values into conflicts over interests — interests that could be divided, negotiated and settled.

What gave this idea its force was the rise of commerce, the domain of calculation par excellence. A powerful chain of reasoning followed: a commercial society would cultivate habits of calculative rationality; those habits would permeate social norms and expectations, and; over time, coolly defined interests would supplant tempestuous passions. The result would not be the disappearance of conflict but its intelligent management: regularised, negotiated and, above all, contained.

Montesquieu coined that proposition’s most celebrated formulation in 1748. The natural effect of commerce, he wrote in The Spirit of the Laws, is to bring about peace. Two nations which trade together render themselves reciprocally dependent; for if one has an interest in buying, the other has an interest in selling. In this way, the spirit of commerce unites nations.

More ambitiously still, commerce offers a cure for the most destructive prejudices; for, wherever there is commerce, there we meet with agreeable manners — the mild (doux) habits that sustain contracts between traders and agreements between states.

Science plays a part

In Montesquieu’s thought, this tendency had a providential cast. The 19th and 20th centuries translated it into a secular idiom. It was no longer commerce alone that would inculcate rationality but the expanding authority of science and, even more, of complex technology — domains whose effective operation seemed to require disciplined, instrumentally rational thought. Although rarely stated so baldly, much of the modernisation literature of the 1950s and 1960s implied a simple syllogism: anyone capable of building missiles must reason as the boffins in Langley do — and, sooner or later, will act with similar calculative restraint in both conflict and co-operation.

The consequence was that fanaticism ∼ what David Hume called enthusiasm ∼ would gradually recede. Hume argued that disputes from interest are the most reasonable and the most excusable, precisely because they admit of bargained resolution; those of religion, by contrast, are more furious and enraged than the most cruel factions that ever arose from interest.

But the extinction of enthusiasm did not require religion’s disappearance. It was, said Alexis de Tocqueville, enough that religion evolve toward forms that reinforced the mundane virtues of co-operation, moderation, tolerance and self-mastery. And that, the modernisation theorists believed, was precisely the direction the major faiths would take in technologically savvy societies.

Inflaming not taming

Clifford Geertz cast doubt on that optimism. In Islam Observed (1968), synthesising years of fieldwork in Morocco and Indonesia, he argued that modernisation ∼ and the spread of education ∼ could inflame rather than tame religious extremism.

Minds trained to prize analytical coherence had, in his experience, recoiled from the tolerant syncretism of Moroccan Sufism and from Indonesia’s gentle blend of Islam, Hinduism and animism, turning instead toward more rigorous, purified and uncompromising forms of faith.

It was therefore no accident that, as Albert Hourani observed in Arabic Thought in the Liberal Age (1983), Jamal al-Din al-Afghani anticipated later currents of Islamic fundamentalism, despite being one of the 19th century’s most influential Muslim advocates of science and technology. If someone asks: why are Muslims in retreat?, wrote al-Afghani, I will answer: when they were truly Muslims, the world bore witness to their excellence. Nor was it accidental that several of the September 11 terrorists were highly trained engineers.

Hasten the apocalypse

Technical mastery did not inevitably advance the spirit of bargaining and moderation. On the contrary, the ability to build missiles could give zealots the means to hasten the apocalypse, dismember the infidels and honour a compact not with other men but with God — a compact that admits neither compromise nor restraint. Utterly irrational ends could be pursued by eminently rational means.

That conjunction ∼ technical sophistication in the service of fanaticism ∼ is the Iranian regime in miniature. That does not mean the regime will never enter into agreements. But, following the precedent set by the Prophet Muhammad at the Treaty of Hudaybiyyah, any such agreement is a hudna or temporary armistice at best, a fleeting ceasefire at worst, to be systematically violated whenever possible, and openly repudiated as soon as practicable.

Far from vindicating the Enlightenment’s hopes, those agreements show how readily fanatics can advance their cause by exploiting the West’s illusions, knowing that it lacks the stomach for a prolonged fight. And to make things worse, the agreements' record is a miserably poor one. As John Stuart Mill ∼ whom no one could plausibly accuse of warmongering ∼ warned, the lesson of the centuries is that barbarians cannot be depended on for observing any rules, nor to reciprocate concessions.

Compromises and capitulations

Time and again, the tiny seed the Due de Rohan planted has therefore borne bitter fruit, as striking deals with fanatics becomes, all too often, an excuse for compromises that turn out to be capitulations.

Yet the art of the deal and the confidence that every conflict is merely a high-stakes version of a real estate negotiation, has a magnetic hold on the Western mind — and on few minds is its grip firmer than on that of America’s 47th president. That his negotiators with Iran have been commercial deal-makers, not hardened experts in handling rogue regimes, should therefore come as no surprise.

Yes, as they look down from on high, Voltaire, Hume and Kant may shake their heads in disbelief. But this much is undeniable: Donald J. Trump is the Enlightenment’s bastard son.



 OVERSEAS:

Lucy Attwood writes in The Telegraph (UK) Deep-fried foods will be banned in schools, thanks to the most sweeping overhaul of school dinners in more than a decade. In addition, items high in fat, salt and sugar, including pastries, pizzas and processed meats, would be tightly restricted. Schools will also have to publish their dinner menus online so parents can check that they are following new rules on providing pupils with healthier meals. Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, said reforms would be "backed by robust compliance so that good standards on paper become good food on the plate". One in three pupils leave primary school overweight or obese, while tooth decay remains the leading cause of hospital admissions among children aged five to nine. It is hoped the new reforms will have a substantial effect on children's health and nutrition. Latest headlines: ♦ Sir Keir Starmer wants the power to sign Britain up to EU single market rules under plans that would avoid a normal parliamentary vote. ♦ 2. President Trump declared that the US navy would "immediately" impose a military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as peace talks fail. ♦ 3. Viktor Orban's 16-year rule of Hungary came to a dramatic end on Sunday as he was swept from power by Peter Magyar. ♦ 4. Labour MPs have demanded that Sir Keir Starmer kill off his deal to cede sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. ♦ 5. Angela Rayner has skipped nearly a third of major votes in parliament since resigning from the government, it has emerged.
Most rail companies are now back in public hands but the creation of a single entity is still a long way off.






The Murrurundi Times is owned, compiled and written by Des Dugan. Email